Economics is pushing US swing voters to pick Trump

Deplorable economy. Ask an American Democrat about current presidential polling data, and y’ll bellyache about irrationality of those who want to vote for former U.S. President Donald Trump. Thanks to President Joe Biden’s policies, y’ll say, inflation has come down and economy has avoided recession. job market is strong, and, as a bonus, stock market is up.

If, as Bill Clinton’s strategist James Carville famously said, U.S. presidential elections are all about “ economy, stupid”, n Biden’s second term should be a no-brainer. Voters beg to differ. In most recent Reuters/IPSOS poll, Biden and Trump would be in a de heat if election were to take place today rar than on Nov. 5. But a December poll drilling into swing states showed Biden with just a slim le in seven states where election was closest in 2020 – Neva, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. If Robert F. Kennedy, an independent candidate, were ded to ballot, Trump would handily win.

Winner takes some

U.S. election is decided by electoral votes in each state, which means that winner of popular vote gets that state’s full allocation. se allocations are n ded toger to form a national tally. system confers oversized influence to “swing states”, where voters are eir on fence or an equal mix of Democrats and Republicans. In several past elections, winner didn’t carry popular vote but heed to White House by taking swing states. On Monday, Trump won handily first Republican caucus in Iowa, a state that used to “swing” but is now firmly in conservative party’s camp. And unless legal cases being reviewed by U.S. Supreme Court keep him off national ballot, he is likely to be Republican pick to challenge Biden in a closely run presidential race.

Part of Biden’s problem is that he took on world’s most powerful job just as United States was ravaged by Covid-19. He injected $1.9 trillion in stimulus into economy, which included direct payments of $1,400 to some households. He also implemented Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS Act, and Inflation Reduction Act, a flurry of emergency laws aimed at creating jobs and reviving parts of economy in desperate need of a jolt. Some of effects of those policies are yet to be felt. For example, workers in some states that lean conservative, like Arizona, should benefit as government subsidies spur construction of microchip factories.

Thanks in part to those measures, economy has avoided a recession, labor market is strong and inflation, which h spiked due to aftershocks of pandemic and Biden’s fiscal splurge, has tapered off.

In this context, it’s easy to see how voters inclined to support Biden would view his victory as inevitable.

Bringing home less bacon...

trouble with this narrative is that first couple of years have taken ir toll on overall perceptions of Biden’s tenure. Because inflation h risen so much, by 2022 real household incomes across United States were down 5% compared to 2019, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In Neva, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Americans did even worse. In Neva and Pennsylvania, for example, real incomes were down more than 10% during that period.

Though rate of consumer price increases has slowed and incomes are rising, it is hard for many Americans to shake off feeling that y have become poorer in last few years.

Two states buck trend. Georgia, a sourn state that has historically gone to Republican candidates but is now considered “swing”, where real incomes have risen 5% since 2019. And Wisconsin, where incomes tracked national average.

… in a smaller home

Housing is anor sore point for Biden, especially at local level. Political nerds have homed in on a handful of counties that will decide 2024 election in each of swing states because y punch above ir weight. In 2020, residents of Maricopa County, Arizona, for example, influenced vote for whole state. Biden won that county by just two percentage points.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta offers granular data on housing by county, and affordability metrics do not look good for president. Take Kent County, Michigan, which includes city of Grand Rapids and is a key area for election. In January 2020, around 22% of average person’s annual income went to pay for ir home, within 30% threshold that Fed considers “affordable” for average American. That calculation takes incomes, housing prices, and interest rates into consideration. By September last year, that figure h jumped to more than 35%.

In Phoenix, which is inside Maricopa County, that data point went from 28% to 45%. In Reno, Neva, largest city in key Washoe County, more than 54% of a person’s annual median income now goes to housing, up from 34% in early 2020. In Wilmington, North Carolina, which Biden flipped in 2020 for first time in deces, same figure went from 30% to 48%.

And even if inflation is now abating thanks to aggressive increases in interest rates by Federal Reserve, many voters are still to feel benefit. Because such a big chunk of Americans’ paychecks is going towards a roof over ir he, even if prices of eggs fall or incomes pick up, moving needle on ir overall financial well-being is hard.

economy may be pushing swing voters to pick Trump. That said, not everyone lets ir wallet dictate electoral preferences. And a lot can change between now and Nov. 5. With Fed Chair Jay Powell signaling cuts to interest rates in coming months, growth might pick up and people could start to feel better.

trouble for Biden – and those that support him – is that while y can logically argue he succeeded at herculean task of steering country during a devastating pandemic, and Pennsylvanians or Arizonians, say, might have been even worse off without CHIPS Act, for voters, re’s no easy way of telling. For now, all y know is that y feel poorer than y were four years ago. Unless ir mood improves by Nov. 5, y’ll inevitably blame man in charge.