Europe defence requires more than a $75 bn boost

Si vis pacem.… Target reached. Europeans are about to meet a defence spending target first envisioned 18 years ago. This year, members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization or than United States will spend some $380 billion, or 2% of ir combined GDP, on military expenses, alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday. That will not make up for 30 years of shrinking defence budgets. war in Ukraine, technological vances, and fears that U.S. may be wavering in its commitment to European defence mean that 2% defence spending target may just be a floor.

countries closest to Russia didn’t wait for President Vlimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to hike ir military spending. Poland’s defence budget alrey surpasses 4% of country’s GDP. three Baltic states spend close to 3%.

Among laggards, a group of rich countries – Germany, Italy, Spain, Nerlands and Belgium – failed over years to beef up ir defence. y spent less than 1.5% of ir collective GDP last year, NATO data show. For se five, meeting 2% target would require spending 57 billion euros more this year than in 2023, according to Breakingviews calculations. That would be bulk of an overall effort that would amount to more than 75 billion euros, if every EU member of NATO met target.

This raises two questions for European governments: how to spend money; and how much is enough.

Much of cash may be needed to support Ukraine’s war effort. United States has provided Kyiv with military aid worth about 25 billion euros a year since beginning of Ukrainian conflict, numbers from Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker show. Should Washington withdraw its aid, Europe would have to fill void. This will start with an industrial challenge: even though Germany’s Rheinmetall has opened a new ammunition factory, Europeans are alrey struggling to meet ir goal of delivering 1 million shells to Ukraine by this spring.

Europe will also need to upgre its military capabilities. National armies must be better trained, and beefed up. Europe is rediscovering need for territorial defence after deces of playing an auxiliary role in NATO foreign interventions from Kosovo to Afghanistan, notes Camille Grand from European Council on Foreign Relations.

Spending a few dozen extra billion euros on defence will not, however, allow Europe to meet its current security challenge. target was set before rise of Russian threat, and when Europeans thought y could count forever on American protection. EU governments need to invest more in vanced technologies that have proven crucial on Ukrainian battlefield, such as drones, satellite communications and even artificial intelligence.

At height of Cold War, European nations used to devote 3.5% to 4% of ir GDP to defence. To be battle-rey y may need to spend at least anor 1% of GDP, or almost 200 billion euros, according to some military analysts.

ded cost may not le to a brutal gun-or-butter choice. In an era of tight European budget constraints, it would still require drastic political and budgetary choices.