With Coronavirus pandemic necessitating changes in life as we kw it and perhaps also heralding more of same for future, ani Group Chairman Gautam ani has penned an engrossing post on his LinkedIn where he makes key predictions for future of energy industry. Along with his outlook on renewables, he also reasons out his forecasts for much-awaited 'next breakthrough' in both generation and stor of energy. Below is blog-post, reproduced in full:

Green Energy Acceleration in Post Covid World

It was 1962 when Bell Labs launched first telecommunications satellite. Amongst many firsts, Telstar h its surface covered with solar cells generating 14 watts of electrical power. credit went to James M. Early. Mr. Early was indeed early! Nearly six deces later, a recent MIT research paper tes that price of solar modules has dropped 99% over past 40 years. Given what I see, I expect prices to drop by an ditional 99% over next 40 years – probably reducing marginal cost of electricity to zero. Such a reduction, in turn, will mean coexistence of two business models – one based on fossil fuels and or driven by renewables – both supplementing each or in near future but pendulum swinging decidedly in favour of renewables in long-term.

Covid19 opens our eyes

Today, as COVID19 challenges fundamental assumptions of our lives, urgency of a green revolution in energy sector gains greater importance. While immediate ecomic impact may slow us down, we are presented with an opportunity to pause, rethink, and design a new and faster transition to a low carbon future. Also, many of system operators in Europe, faced with falling demand, are learning to man grids at a remarkably high level of renewables in energy mix, often up to 70%. This learning is invaluable as such a scenario was unlikely only a few months ago. While generation balance may swing back as demand increases, crisis has provided insights to operators on keeping grid stable with high levels of renewable penetration. Post Covid19, this may be new rm.

When ecomics and purpose work in tandem

When ecomics and purpose converge, result can be disruptive. that renewables are good for environment, but b for business is increasingly a thing of past. Today, we see an accelerating trend where policies facilitated by governments, public awareness and support for action on climate change, and ecomies of scale continue to create massive market demand and job creation through renewables while simultaneously dressing energy security for countries dependent on energy imports.

Hydrogen as a potential game changer

t just solar, I also expect unit cost of wind power to fall significantly driven by invation in techlogy and massive deployment of new wind projects both on-shore and off-shore. With increasing investor confidence in solar and wind, ir integration with various stor techlogies will furr accelerate energy transition. predominant stor techlogy on horizon appears to be Hydrogen. I am personally hopeful about Hydrogen in long run. decomposition of a water molecule to produce Hydrogen has always been dream as a fuel that doubles up as energy stor. While industrial world is familiar with Hydrogen, over 90% is produced through steam reforming, an inherently carbon-intensive process. However, with prospect of future marginal cost of renewable energy dropping precipitously, green Hydrogen produced by splitting water could be game-changer. This Hydrogen could use much of existing gas pipeline network for distribution, be blended with natural gas and be a green feedstock for chemical industry. d to this fact that energy density of a kilogram of Hydrogen is almost three times that of gasoline, and you have a momentum that would be near impossible to stop as Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle prices come down. Biased it may be, Hydrogen council predicts that green Hydrogen could attract $70 billion of investment over next dece. Expenditure on such a scale could disrupt as well as create several industries in ways hard to predict.

It's all about jobs

Today’s politics and ecomics are necessarily about job creation, even more so in post Covid19 recovery phase. International Renewable Energy ncy (IRENA) forecasts that employment in clean energy sector, currently at 12 million in 2020, could quruple by 2050, while jobs in energy efficiency and system flexibility could grow by ar 40 million. A recent IRENA report projects that this transition could le to investment opportunities of $19 trillion in solar, wind, battery stor, green Hydrogen, carbon manment and energy efficiency by 2050 making it one of largest global industries.

India’s moment

India is well-positioned to benefit. Our country is naturally endowed with very high levels of solar resources, and long coastline makes an attractive proposition for wind power. Indian renewable energy industry alrey ranks fourth globally in terms of installed capacity, and combination of beneficial geography, falling equipment prices, increasing demand and a world-class transmission network means an industry that is expected to continue growing for next two deces. Little wonder that this sector has received over $10 billion of FDI inflow over past dece. fact that Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has alrey raised its target to 225 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 form initial 2015 goal of 175 GW established at Paris and n furr increased target to 500 GW by 2030 is an indication of potential as well as seriousness of government to help India le global energy transition.

Although impact of climate change is slower to emerge than a pandemic, its threat to humanity is more significant. refore, case of transition to a cleaner energy future must be taken up t only by governments but also by industry. India is quietly and firmly leing way. COVID19 may be turning point where society levers ecomic rebuilding effort to fast track transition to a cleaner future.

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