India's sugar production projected to decline by 2% in 2024-25: ISMA

Sugar production: India's gross sugar production is expected to decrease by 2 per cent to 333 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, starting October, according to the Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).

ISMA released the preliminary estimates for the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September) on Tuesday, following an in-depth analysis of satellite imagery, field reports on expected yields, sugar recovery rates, drawal percentages, the impact of past and present rainfall, water availability in reservoirs, and anticipated rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon 2024.

The association forecasts the country's gross sugar production (excluding diversion for ethanol) at 333.10 lakh tonnes for 2024-25, down from an estimated 339.95 lakh tonnes in the current 2023-24 marketing year.

Net sugar production for the current marketing year is estimated at 319.65 lakh tonnes, accounting for a diversion of 20.30 lakh tonnes for ethanol production.

ISMA projects an opening stock of 90.5 lakh tonnes as of October 1, 2024, with gross production (excluding diversion for ethanol) at 333 lakh tonnes, resulting in a total sugar availability of 423.5 lakh tonnes in 2024-25.

Domestic consumption is expected to be 290 lakh tonnes in the next marketing year, leading to a closing stock of 133.5 lakh tonnes as of September 30, 2025.

The normative stock for two and a half months has been set at 55 lakh tonnes. Therefore, the excess stock over the normative requirement is 78.5 lakh tonnes.

"The excess stock of sugar will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending Program in the 2024-25 season and also exports in the current season, leading to a balanced sugar market," ISMA stated.

(With PTI inputs)