Published 11:43 IST, July 15th 2024
Dollar rises, crypto jumps as markets turn in favour of a Trump victory
Trading was thinned in the Asian session with Japan out for a holiday, though news of the Trump shooting dominated the market mood.
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dollar rose broly on Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as tres for a victory by Donald Trump in upcoming US elections gared steam in wake of an attempted assassination of former US President.
Tring was thinned in Asian session with Japan out for a holiday, though news of Trump shooting dominated market mood and h investors narrowing odds of a Trump victory come November.
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attempted assassination probably enhances Trump's "reputation for strength", said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with Democrats at 38 cents. current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win election as Democrats.
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That sent dollar rising broly, which left euro easing 0.14 per cent to $1.0895, while sterling fell 0.09 per cent to $1.2978.
Cash US Treasuries were untred in Asia on Monday owing to Japan holiday, but 10-year Treasury futures edged lower, indicating yields will rise when cash tring begins later in day. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
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" market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterised by a stronger US dollar and a steepening of US Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have furr improved following this incident," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.
Crypto prices similarly surged in anticipation of a Trump win, with bitcoin last up 9 per cent at $62,760. Er jumped more than 7 per cent to $3,336.80.
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Trump has presented himself as a champion for cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy.
In or currencies, Australian dollar eased 0.13 per cent to $0.6775, while New Zealand dollar slid 0.3 per cent to $0.6100.
dollar index was little changed at 104.20.
Under a Trump presidency, market analysts expect a more hawkish tre policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations.
Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts expiring next year, fuelling concerns about rising budget deficits under Trump.
Helines from China also grabbed investors' attention on Monday, as data showed world's second-largest economy grew much slower than expected in second quarter, weighed down by a protracted property downturn and as job insecurity squeezed domestic demand.
Separate figures released earlier in day showed China's new home prices fell at fastest pace in nine years in June, with battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite government support measures to control oversupply and bolster confidence.
Chinese yuan hardly reacted to data and only slightly extended its losses from earlier in session to last tre 0.13 per cent lower at 7.2602 per dollar in onshore market .
"On net, it's a negative outcome. It does show that second-quarter growth momentum appears to be weakening," said Alvin Tan, he of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
" second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that we'll need more support to get economy to 5 per cent target for whole year."
China's once-in-five-year garing of top officials, which usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday and four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support patchy recovery in world's second-largest economy.
Elsewhere, yen reversed some of its gains from late last week and last stood at 157.95 per dollar, though remained not too far from a roughly one-month high of 157.30 hit on Friday.
Tokyo was thought to have intervened in market to prop up battered Japanese currency last week in wake of a cooler-than-expected US inflation report, with Bank of Japan data suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.
11:43 IST, July 15th 2024