Taylor Swift is Thai economy’s antihero

Shake it off. "Don't blame me", Singapore is saying after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong confirmed at the ASEAN summit in Melbourne on Tuesday that the city state had clinched an exclusive deal to host Taylor Swift's Southeast Asia concerts. That has upset its neighbours, not least Thailand, which is struggling with the region's slowest post-pandemic recovery. The pop star, though, can't shake off the $500 billion economy's problems.

Singapore has long had a reputation for hosting marquee events from Formula One racing to major performances. So it was no surprise when the Lion City was picked as the only Southeast Asia stop in Swift's blockbuster Eras tour. But Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin sparked controversy last month with remarks that Singapore had financially supported the 34-year-old's concerts in exchange for exclusivity. The tour has brought in tens of thousands of tourists for the six sold-out shows currently underway and boosted demand for hotels, flights, and other services. Tay Tay-related tourist spending might be as much as S$500 million ($373 million), Maybank estimated last month.

For Srettha, that must seem like a missed opportunity as the former tycoon rolls out visa-free travel with China, India and others, to boost growth in the tourism-dependent economy. But the actual benefit of Swiftonomics is highly debatable: similar big numbers were doing the rounds for the Australian leg of Swift's tour, but the actual net direct impact may have been as low as A$11 million ($7 million), calculates KPMG.

In any event, Thailand's economy needs more than a few gigs. It unexpectedly contracted in the final quarter of last year, burdened by sluggish exports due to weak China growth. Investment and government spending are just 3% and 0.5% respectively above their pre-COVID levels, per Capital Economics. Manufacturing output also declined for the 16th month in January and growth targets have already been trimmed for this year.

Srettha, a political novice who took power in August, has been urging the independent central bank to cut rates. He is also seeking to hand out a total of $14 billion to 50 million Thais to spend within six months, which risks increasing inflation and the national debt.

Singapore may have turned Swift into an antihero for Thailand. But only in anyone's wildest dreams would her concerts have had much economic impact.