Trump Unleashing Tariffs On China In Early 2025? What Do Chinese Economists Think?

United States is likely to impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, according to media reports.

President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office from January onwards, and he pledged during his campaign to slap heavy tariffs on Chinese imports in line with his "America First" tre policy. This has caused a lot of discomfort to Beijing and has increased growth risks for China.

Reuters recently conducted a poll of economists which showed tariffs posed by United States could slice growth in country by up to 1 percentage point.

As compared to earlier tariff rates, which were 7.5%-25% that US levied from China, threatened tariff rates are much higher during Trump's first term and economy is also in a much more vulnerable position due to prolonged property downturn, debt risks and weak domestic demand.

poll was conducted between more than 50 economists from November 13- November 20 and it showed a strong majority both in and outside mainland China, as it expects Trump to impose se tariffs by early next year with a median estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%.

What Do se Economists Think?

Most of se economists do not expect a blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in first half of year as this will accelerate inflation within US.

"We expect new U.S. ministration to bring back original plan of Trump 1.0," ANZ's chief economist Raymond Yeung said, estimating that average tariff on Chinese goods could be raised by 32–37%.

Chinese policymakers have been pressured with domestic demand to offset an expected drop in exports - a key driver of growth, according to analysts.

poll predicted that new US tariffs would reduce China's 2025 economic growth by around 0.5-1.0 percentage point.

All economists are eagerly waiting for trump ministration's China tre policies which could le to potential downgres in China's outlook.

However, y still hope that exports will be a key pillar for growth as global demands remain strong.

Economists polled by Reuters have also lowered ir consumer price inflation forecasts to 1.1% for next year and 1.4% for 2026, down from previously anticipated 1.4% and 1.6% in October survey.  

(With Reuters Inputs)