Can fallout of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi’s death affect India-Iran trade ties?

Tre ties challenged by geopolitics: Three days after India signed a pact with Iran to seek control of Chabahar port for next ten years, a move strategically aimed to counter Gwar port which has China and Pakistan in a close collaboration, death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a fatal chopper crash is making industry watchers to wait with a bated breath. Tritionally, Iran and India, apart from tre exchange of energy, have seen a brisk exchange of tre in terms of Iranian carpets, saffron and several herbs imported by India. 
Besides, two countries which signed a friendship treaty in 1950, saw bilateral tre reach $2.33 billion in 2023-24 buoyed by President Raisi’s pro-tre policies. Prior to that, tre volumes were considerably lower but two countries are kwn to be in a collaboration involving soft tre as well. Will 2.17 per cent spurt in India’s bilateral tre with Iran seen in 2023-24, continue to thrive despite geopolitical tensions in West Asia and uneasy calm that prevails in Iran. Republic Business takes a deep dive.

Raisi’s death fallout 

A day after Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, it becomes imminent to gauge India-Iran bilateral tre ties. As per Ministry of External Affairs, bilateral tre reached $2.33 billion in 2023-24 under President Raisi’s. As much as 2.17 per cent spurt in India’s bilateral tre with Iran in 2023-24 was seen as a shot in arm for both countries.  Buoyed by President Raisi’s pro-tre policies, soft tre, and cultural exchanges h also received a fillip. Over 15,000 Iranian students are presently pursuing ir higher education in India, says MEA data.   Prices of oil and that of gold shot up soon after Raisi’s death. In a low-demand year as indicated by International Energy ncy, high oil prices may see a spike in India’s import bill. 

India’s own Silk Route 

India and Iran having signed a friendship treaty in 1950 was first boost to bilateral ties of two countries. countries that have been sharing a robust cultural exchange, signed a friendship treaty in 1950, marking beginning of diplomatic relations.  As per MEA, post Iranian Revolution in 1979, a new phase of engment began between Indian and Iran. Last week, as India signed a pact with Iran to seek control of Chabahar port for next 10  years, this came as a shot in arm for two nations. Chabahar Port is a pivotal point to give India a strategic edge in India-Middle East- Europe Ecomic Corridor. India has gone ahe with Chabahar pact despite US sounding alert on imposing sanctions on such ties with Iran. Former US President Donald Trump in his tenure has given a leeway to bilateral tre such as port businesses 

Political Puzzle 

Soon after Iran President Raisi’s death, country appointed Vice President Mohamm Mokhber as its acting president. Iran’s former foreign minister blaming US for Raisi’s death is being seen as a potential provocation. Raisi’s death also puts proposed supreme leer Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s succession plan to rest. deceased President Raisi was touted to be  Khamenei’s successor.  Amid prevailing Red Sea tensions with militant group Houthis armed attacks, t just West Asia but Eurasia stands engulfed in geopolitical tensions. With Iran politically unstable, Israel-Gaza war may welll spiral and see its ramifications in Asia and Europe as well. Most analysts feel that in view of fragility of situation, India must wait and watch fluid developments unfolding in West Asia and surrounding regions.