Indian Rupee Strengthens Amid Optimism and Awaited U.S. Inflation Data

Rupee strengthened: The Indian rupee saw gains on Wednesday, bolstered by the strength of its Asian counterparts and anticipated dollar inflows. As of 9:50 a.m. IST, the rupee stood at 83.21 against the U.S. dollar, marking a 0.1% increase compared to its previous close at 83.3150 on Monday. Tuesday saw Indian currency and debt markets closed for a local holiday.

The dollar index remained relatively stable at 104.14, while most Asian currencies experienced slight upticks, with the Indonesian rupiah leading gains with a 0.3% increase.

Early trading witnessed strong selling interest in the dollar-rupee pair, coupled with moderate demand from importers, contributing to the rupee's positive performance, according to a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank.

In anticipation of U.S. consumer inflation data scheduled for later in the day, U.S. bond yields slipped. Analysts expect the data to reveal a 0.3% month-on-month increase in core consumer price inflation for March, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.4% rise. This data, following a robust jobs report last week, will play a crucial role in shaping expectations regarding the timing of potential policy rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Odds of a rate cut by the Fed in June have slightly decreased to 54%, down from approximately 63% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Looking ahead, the rupee is expected to continue its ascent, but challenges lie ahead as it approaches a strong resistance zone at 83.10-83.12, noted Apurva Swarup, vice president at Shinhan Bank India. Additionally, investors will closely monitor the release of minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting and remarks from Fed policymakers later in the day for further insights into the central bank's stance and potential future actions.

With Reuters Inputs