COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road

Fair cop. Sultan al-Jaber has cobbled toger a climate deal from jaws of disaster. On Monday, president of 28th session of United Nations’ Conference of Parties (COP) looked set to preside over an extremely b deal on decarbonising planet, or no deal at all. On Wednesday, he clinched an accord that is far from good, but at least doesn’t stop decarbonisation in its tracks.

Prior to COP28, representatives from more than 100 nations and climate lobbyists h hoped for a global commitment to “phase out” fossil fuels. Some were willing to compromise on milder “phasing down” terminology to bring a deal home. final text swerves even that by citing need for a “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, accelerating this dece, to achieve net zero by 2050.

key question is how much of a cop-out this represents. If agreed text is understood as broly akin to a “phasing down” of oil and gas production, it’s a tangible step forward. That terminology is similar to what h been envisaged by net zero number-crunchers like Energy Transitions Commission. International Energy Agency scenarios suggest a meaningful level of oil production in 2050 can still be consistent with limiting warming to a bearable 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Mentioning need to move on from oil and gas in any substantive way is a first for COP, and lack of language requiring curbs only for “unabated” products will make it harder for oil producers like Saudi Arabia to drag ir feet by relying on untested carbon capture technologies. Moreover, text’s call for world to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 may help le to a 25% reduction in oil demand by end of dece, IEA reckons.

That said, text is couched at end of U.N. diplomatic language, and merely “calls on” countries to aim to start transitioning away. It’s not exactly a hard commitment. Meanwhile, accord sets no actual limits on production of crude, gas and coal.

COP28 was billed as a global stocktake to make nations’ decarbonisation plans more credible. Yet such plans still imply global temperatures could rise nearly 3 degrees Celsius. And re’s an $18 trillion gap between what’s needed by 2030 and what’s committed to finance energy transition, according to Boston Consulting Group research, and a major question mark over how to fund drive to net zero in developing countries. Still, al-Jaber’s baby step forward remains better than a damaging standstill.

Context News

Representatives of nearly 200 countries attending COP28 climate summit in Dubai agreed on Dec. 13 to transition away from all fossil fuels in energy systems and accelerate action this dece so as to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, first time nations committed to move away from polluting energy sources. deal fell short of calling for a complete phasing out of oil, gas and coal, which more than 100 countries h lobbied for. agreement, struck at end of intense two-week talks in Dubai, also envisages trebling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030, along with faster improvements in energy efficiency. text of final accord also calls for a substantial reduction by 2030 of non-carbon dioxide emissions, in particular methane. COP28 nations estimate that about $4.3 trillion per year will need to be invested in clean energy up until 2030, and $5 trillion after that, to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Author:  George Hay, Lisa Jucca