Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

With just days to go for  assembly elections in Haryana, Republic-Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll has presented a snapshot projection of where various parties stand at moment in states. With its 90 seats, Haryana goes to polls on October 21, and results of same will be anunced on October 24.  Opinion Poll has me a promising projection for ruling BJP under Chief Minister Mahar Lal Khattar.

For Haryana, which will to polls in a single-phase on Monday, Jan Ki Baat poll projects that Khattar-led BJP is likely to win between 58 to 70 seats, while Congress is projected to win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats. While newly stitched INLD-S alliance is projected to get 0 to 1 seat, JJP that has been formed by Dushyant Chautala after infighting in Chautala family, and is backed by former Congress chief Ashok Tanwar, is projected to get 5 to 8 seats.  Opinion Poll has also projected BJP to get a massive vote share of 56.7%. 

Here’s entire Jan Ki Baat projection:

SEAT SHARE:

• BJP: 58 to 70
   
• Congress: 12 to 18
   
• INLD-S alliance: 0 to 1
   
• JJP: 5 to 8 

VOTE SHARE:

• BJP: 56.7%
   
• Congress: 9.6%
   
• INLD - S: 3.1%.
   
• JJP: 25.6%

Lok Sabha elections 2019

saffron party swept state winning all 10 seats in Lok Sabha polls. pattern in Haryana has been those leing in General Election, stake claim to power in elections that follow to state assembly. Jan Ki Baat’s projections reiterate same trend. 

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Assembly polls 2014

projection suggests that BJP in this year's assembly polls will do better than that of its 2014 performance, going from a seat share of 47 to a projected aver of 64 seats -- a 17 seat gain. projection on vote share also shows a massive 23.4% increase from 33.3% last election to a predicted 56.7% w. While, projection for Congress appears to be dismissal with Congress projected to get almost same seat share and vote share like  last election. INLD split seems to have cost party which is looking a projected 18 seat fall from it's 19 seat tally of 2014 to 1 seat w and a fall in vote share too. newly formed JJP is projected to see a 25.6% vote share which is higher than vote share of INLD last election.

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Methodology:

Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies.

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