Republic Double Exit Poll for Jammu and Kashmir: PDP projected for big fall, BJP likely to keep NC-Congress duo at bay say CVoter and Jan Ki Baat

With polling in world's largest democracy coming to an end on Sunday with conclusion of seventh and final round of voting in general elections, 1.3 billion citizens of India including an estimated 900 million-strong electorate w await vote-counting on May 23 when identities of 542 ( Vellore polls were countermanded) newly elected members to lower house of India's Parliament will be revealed, and consequently, process of forming next government of India will enter its final st. Ahead of what promises to be a thrilling May 23, Republic Media Network has broadcast country's biggest exit poll - double exit poll in collaboration with nation's biggest pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter - which presents a projection of what to expect on counting day, including granular projections from each of states and union territories.

In Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) which is currently under presidential rule after BJP-PDP coalition state government fell, battle is set between NDA alliance, UPA alliance which includes Farooq Abdullah-led NC and former BJP ally Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP for 6 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, which polled in five phases of Lok Sabha elections on April 11,18,23,29 and May 6.

Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Form Government, Likely To Cross 300+ Mark Comfortably; Congress To Fall Short Of 100

CVoter:

Seat Share:

In terms of seats, NDA is predicted to win 3 seats, while UPA is predicted to win 3 seats (all by NC) and PDP is projected to win seat.
NDA: 3 seats
UPA: 3 seats
PDP: 0 seat

Vote Share:

NDA is projected to lead pack garnering 41.9% of votes. UPA is projected to trail closely with 34.3% of votes, while PDP  is projected to gain 16.5% of votes and or parties are projected to garner 7.4% of votes.

NDA: 41.9%
UPA: 34.3%
PDP: 16.5%
Ors: 7.4%

Jan ki Baat:

Seat share:

In terms of seats, NDA is projected to win 1-2 seats, while UPA is projected to win 3-4 seats, PDP is set to win 1 seat

NDA: 1-2 seats
UPA: 3-4 seats
PDP: 0-1 seat

Republic-CVoter Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Cross Halfway Mark, Modi Set To Form Government Again, Congress Likely To Fall Short Of 100 Mark

Historical trend:

In 2014 General elections, J&K had a voter turut of 49.5% in all phases, in which BJP won 3 seats, while PDP won 3 seats and UPA won seat.  
last two Assembly elections (87 seats) are seen to follow an increasing trend for BJP as it increased its win from 11 to 25 seats during 2014 riding on Modi wave. While voter turut had increased marginally in 2014 from 61.2% to 66.4%, Congress diminished its foothold as its seat share fell from 17 seats to 12 seats in 2014 as saffron party formed an unlikely alliance with PDP to form government. This alliance fell in June 2018 due to increasing discrimination in two regions of state, PDP's unresponsive attitude to aid and PDP's hindrance to development projects in J&K.

In 2019, J&K has witnessed an aver voter turut of 34% in its four poll phases.

Key battles in J&K: 

Baramulla: A majorly rural population resides in this region which is centre of terrorist attacks, violence by separatists, civil disobedience and protests. Here BJP has fielded Mohammad Maqbool War to face PDP's Abdul Qayoom Wani, NC's Mohammad Akbar Lone and Congress' Haji Farooq Ahmad Mir.

Anantnag: PDP's stronghold is home to major terror affected areas like Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag. Here battle is between PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, BJP's Sofi Yousuf, NC's Hasnain Masoodi and Congress' Ghulam Ahmad Mir. constituency has also been very politically sensitive due to killing of Burhan Wani. While many Kashmiri separatists have called for boycotting of polls, NC and PDP kw that this favours saffron party which has given free rein to Indian Army pushing its nda of nationalism.

National Approval Ratings: In Jammu And Kashmir, UPA Is Projected To Win State, Leaving PDP And NDA On Losing Side

Recent political developments:

state has been under scanner following ghastly Pulwama attack, issues of national security and BJP's stance of abrogating Article 370, which did t go down well with regional party leaders Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti.

After this former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah called for 'separate Prime Minister and President for J&K', Mufti went ahead to say that state will gain 'freedom' from India and went on make a contrast between India-Jammu and Kashmir relations with that of Israel-Palestine over abolishment of Article 370 from state.

Both Mufti and Abdullah have also been very vocal on many controversies surrounding BJP like - Sadhvi Pragya, Rajiv Gandhi, Prime Minister's comments on airstrike and or issues, Kamal Haasan's controversial remarks among a few.

Army has recently achieved success after it eliminated all terrorists of JeM terrorists who were responsible for Pulwama attack. It has also achieved success in killing terrorists from various local terror outfits in Pulwama, Shopian.

On a national scale:

2019 elections saw high-octane electric campaigning from both sides as BJP went hammer and tongs, expressing confidence at each turn that it would t only repeat but also better its tally of 282 votes from five years earlier, whereas Congress and or Opposition parties,  also campaigned heavily though without being able to make any convincing show of unity. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in Parliament, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in 2019 polls.

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set nda for polls, including first interview of Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside se were sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed mselves willing to compromise interests of those whom y claim to represent, Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed falsehood in Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous ors.

vote counting for 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for n-stop cover of sensational conclusion to general elections here.