Republic Double Exit Poll: Gujarat projected to remain BJP stronghold but Congress set to make inroads after 2014 wipe-out, say CVoter and Jan Ki Baat

With polling in world's largest democracy coming to an end on Sunday with conclusion of seventh and final round of voting in general elections, 1.3 billion citizens of India including an estimated 900 million-strong electorate w await vote-counting on May 23 when identities of 542 ( Vellore polls were countermanded) newly elected members to lower house of India's Parliament will be revealed, and consequently, process of forming next government of India will enter its final st. Ahead of what promises to be a thrilling May 23, Republic Media Network has broadcast country's biggest exit poll - double exit poll in collaboration with nation's biggest pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter - which presents a projection of what to expect on counting day, including granular projections from each of states and union territories.

Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Form Government, Likely To Cross 300+ Mark Comfortably; Congress To Fall Short Of 100

In Gujarat, home state of Prime Minister and a stronghold of BJP, battle is set between NDA alliance and UPA alliance for 28 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs which polled in third phase of Lok Sabha elections on April 23.

CVoter:

Seat Share:

In terms of seats, NDA is predicted to win 22 seats, while UPA is predicted to win in 4 seats.

NDA: 22 seats
UPA: 4 seats

Vote Share:

NDA is projected to lead pack garnering 59.3% of votes. UPA is projected to trail closely with 37.4% of votes, while or parties are projected to garner 3.3% of votes.

NDA: 59.3%
UPA: 37.4%
Ors: 3.3%

Republic-CVoter Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Cross Halfway Mark, Modi Set To Form Government Again, Congress Likely To Fall Short Of 100 Mark

Jan ki Baat:

Seat share:

In terms of seats, NDA is projected to win 22-23 seats, while UPA is projected to win in 3-4 seats.

NDA: 22-23 seats
UPA: 3-4 seats

National Approval Ratings: NDA Predicted To Win Big In Gujarat, Congress Likely To Get Dismal Two Seats

Historical trend:

In 2014 General elections, Gujarat had a voter turut of 63.6% in all phases in which all 26 seats were won by NDA, while UPA won ne.  
last two Assembly elections (182 seats) are seen to follow a decreasing trend for NDA as it decreased its win from 115 to 99 seats during 2017. While voter turut had decreased marginally in 2017 from 72.5% to 69.2%, UPA increased its foothold as it increased its seat share from 61 seats to 77 seats in 2017 as post-demonetisation and GST effect.

In 2019, Gujarat has witnessed an aver voter turut of 64.11% in its single poll phases.  

Key battles in Gujarat:

main battle in Gujarat is centred in Saurashtra region of Gujarat

Surendranagar: This Koli-dominated area will see a high stake battle between Congress' Somabhai Patel and BJP's Dr. Munjapara Mahendrabhai. Congress is confident to repeat its 2017 Assembly success as acute agrarian crisis due to lower minimum support price for farm produce, n-payment of crop insurance, unemployment and water short owing to poor rain still continue to plague region trouble state government.

Junagadh: This region will see battle between Koli candidates - BJP's Chudasama Rajeshbhai Naranbhai who is sitting MP and Leader of Opposition - Congress'  Vansh Punjabhai Bhimabhai.

Amreli: A part of Patidar aggression, this region will witness battle between Patidar candidates- BJP's Kachhadiya Naranbhai Bhikhabhai and Congress' Paresh Dhanani. While mercantile community has traditionally voted BJP, Patidar aggression and demonetisation have plagued this region shifting its vote towards Congress.   
Porbandar: Ar Patidar dominated area will see battle between BJP's Rameshbhai Lavjibhai Dhaduk and Congress' Lalit Vasoya both of local community.

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Recent political developments:

While 2017 saw a shift in voting trend towards Congress in Assembly elections due to demonetisation and GST implementation, state witnessed a massive shift in loyalties when face of Patidar aggression- Hardik Patel joined Congress putting 3-year-long speculation over his political affiliation to rest.

After he joined grand old party, his own poll plans were scuppered after Gujarat High Court refused to stay his conviction in a 2015 rioting case rendering him ineligible. He has subsequently been campaigning for his party and has been condemning Prime Minister for skirting real issues and recently calling him a 'Yamraj sitting in Delhi'. He had also been publically slapped in a public rally.

Congress Chief Rahul Gandhi too stirred controversy when he commented: "how come all thieves have Modi as common surname" after which Chief Judicial Magistrate of Surat summoned him in response a defamation suit filed by BJP legislator Purnesh Modi.

In or news, Rahul Gandhi ally and independent MLA from Vadgam, Jignesh Mewani who was face of 2016 Dalit aggression had fearmongered over 10% reservation for Ecomically Weaker Sections saying it was an RSS-BJP conspiracy against caste reservation. He has also publically campaigned for AAP in New Delhi. 

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On a national scale:

2019 elections saw high-octane electric campaigning from both sides as BJP went hammer and tongs, expressing confidence at each turn that it would t only repeat but also better its tally of 282 votes from five years earlier, whereas Congress and or Opposition parties,  also campaigned heavily though without being able to make any convincing show of unity. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in Parliament, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in 2019 polls.

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set nda for polls, including first interview of Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside se were sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed mselves willing to compromise interests of those whom y claim to represent, Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed falsehood in Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous ors.

vote counting for 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for n-stop cover of sensational conclusion to general elections here.