Assam Exit Polls 2021 Live Updates: Republic-CNX poll projects comfortable victory for NDA

As per the Republic-CNX Exit Poll, the party-wise projections is- BJP (60-66 seats), Congress (26-28 seats), AGP (10-14), AIUDF (11-13), BPF (5-7), UPPL (3-5) and Others (1-3). Barring AGP, AIUDF and BPF, all other parties are bagging more seats in contrast to the previous election. With BJP set to be the single-largest party, the NDA is projected to win 44.25% of the votes, while the Congress-led Mahajot (UPA) is projected to win 39.65% of the votes. The other political parties are likely to get 16.10% vote share.

While the results of the Assam Assembly election will be out on May 2, the Republic-CNX Exit Poll predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance over the Congress-led Mahajot tie-up. It is projected that Mahajot will be unable to breach the halfway mark in the 126-member Assembly. The NDA is projected to win 74-84 seats trouncing the Congress-led Mahajot alliance (UPA) which is predicted to bag only 40-50 seats. On the other hand, other political parties are likely to win one to three seats. In comparison to its performance in the 2016 Assembly polls, NDA is likely to gain 0-10 more seats, the UPA alliance might lose one to 11 seats.

To understand that which party has the edge after voting in the state, CNX, a Delhi-based research and survey agency, conducted the exit poll survey at the polling booths in Assam. The focus of the survey was to gauge the mood of the ordinary people on the street. Finding out the opinions of the man on the street was the major concern of the survey. 

A list of questions was prepared by the Republic-CNX team to understand the possible voting behavior of the Bengali people in the assembly elections in the state. A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was administered randomly to 15,120 men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to 60. The survey team visited all the 126 Assembly seats in the states going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life. 

The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view the demographic, professional and migration dimensions. On the whole, the sample respondents came from all walks of life as cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage laborers, petty shop keepers, migrant laborers, mechanics, registered medical practitioners, auto-rickshaw drivers, taxi drivers, real estate dealers, etc. (The results are subject to a margin of error 2.5 percent)

1. Majuli: Sarbananda Sonowal (BJP) vs Rajib Lochan Pegu (Congress)

A constituency reserved under the ST category, Majuli will witness incumbent CM Sarbananda Sonowal seeking re-election. It is pertinent to note that both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and ex-Congress president Rahul Gandhi have campaigned in this region. In the 2016 Assembly polls, Sonowal had scored a major upset by defeating Congress' Rajib Lochan Pegu who had won the seat thrice in a row since 2001. The margin of victory was 18,923 votes. It promises to be an interesting fight again with Congress again fielding Pegu while Bhaity Richong of the SUCI (Communist) party and Sishudar Doley of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) are other key candidates. Some of the key issues in the constituency include the damage caused due to floods and soil erosion.

2. Sibsagar: Surabhi Rajkonwari (BJP) vs Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dal) vs Subhramitra Gogoi (Congress)

In the 2016 Assembly polls, former Speaker and Congress leader Pranab Kumar Gogoi won the Sibsagar seat by a very narrow margin. The runner-up Surabhi Rajkonwar has again been given a ticket by BJP. As Gogoi passed away in February 2020, Congress has nominated Subhramitra Gogoi for this seat. They face a formidable challenger in the form of incarcerated activist and Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi. He was arrested by the NIA in December 2019 for his alleged role in violence during the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act. However, he has sent mixed signals with his recent appeal urging people to vote for the strongest non-BJP candidate in each constituency. 

3. Jorhat: Hitendra Nath Goswami (BJP) vs Rana Goswami (Congress)

Jorhat is perceived as another prestigious seat for BJP as Assam Assembly Speaker Hitendra Nath Goswami is seeking re-election from here. In the 2016 election, Goswami had trounced Rana Goswami of Congress by a margin of more than 13,000 votes. This seat falls under the Jorhat district. Saturday promises to be yet another direct contest between Hirendra Goswami and Congress' Rana Goswami. Nirod Changkakoti of the AJP is another important candidate in the poll fray. 

4. Bokakhat: Atul Bora (AGP) vs Mridul Saikia (NCP)

A traditional stronghold of Congress, Bokakhat was wrested by BJP's ally Asom Gana Parishad. AGP president and state Agriculture Minister Atul Bora created history in the 2016 Assembly polls by becoming the first non-Congress candidate to win from this constituency. He has served as the founder-chairman of the North-East Students' Coordination Committee and the AASU chief in the past. While Congress' Arun Phukan was his contender in the last election, NCP's Mridul Saikia and AJP's Reba Gogoi are the main opposition candidates on this occasion. In the recent past, AGP has faced a lot of flak for persisting with the BJP-led ruling alliance despite the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act.

5. Panery: Biswajit Daimary (BJP) vs Karuna Kanta Swargiary (BPF)

Falling under the Mangaldoi Lok Sabha segment, the Panery constituency is a part of the Kamrup district. Interestingly, BJP has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Biswajit Daimary from this seat. A one-term MLA, Daimary was a member of the Upper House belonging to the Nagaland People's Front until November 2020 when he defected to the JP Nadda-led party.

In February 2021, he was re-elected to the Rajya Sabha. Panery was won by Kamali Basumatari of BPF in the 2016 Assembly polls while the runner-up was Independent candidate Nanda Ram Baro. It is pertinent to note that BPF joined the Congress-led Mahajot alliance in the lead-up to the Assembly election. BPF's Karuna Kanta Swargiary is the key challenger to Daimary. 

• Titabar: This is the first election in a long time when one of Assam's stalwart politicians Tarun Gogoi is not in the poll fray. Having represented Titabar for 4 straight terms since 2001, the ex-CM passed away in November 2020 owing to post COVID-19 complications. While there was speculation that his son and Kaliabor Lok Sabha MP Gaurav Gogoi would contest in his place, Congress has given the ticket to Bhaskar Jyoti Baruah. On the other hand, a resurgent BJP has fielded Hemanta Kalita who won from this constituency in 1996. Sailendra Kumar Hazarika of the AJP is the other prominent challenger.

• Gohpur: Falling under the Tezpur Lok Sabha segment, Gohpur is a part of the Biswanath district. The result in this constituency assumes great significance as Assam Congress president Ripun Bora is contesting from here. Bora made a political comeback after being discharged in the Daniel Topno murder case in 2014 by bagging a Rajya Sabha ticket two years later. While his wife Monica Bora won this seat in 2011, she lost to BJP's Utpal Borah in the previous Assembly polls. This time also, BJP has reposed faith in Borah retaining Gohpur. 

• Katigora: 6-time MLA Gautam Roy is contesting as the BJP candidate from Katigora in the Cachar district. The 72-year-old politician represented the Katlichera constituency continuously from 1985 to 2016 and even served in ex-CM Tarun Gogoi's Cabinet. However, he suffered a shocking defeat to AIUDF's Suzam Uddin Laskar in the previous election. After the Congress party suspended him for anti-party activities, he joined the saffron party in 2019. In the 2016 polls, BJP's Amar Chand Jain had defeated  AIUDF's Khalil Uddin Mazumder with a slender margin of over 8,000 votes. On this occasion, Jain was shifted to Katlichera while Roy was asked to contest from here. Additionally, Khalil Uddin Mazumder is fighting the polls on a Congress ticket. 

• Jamunamukh: Considered an AIUDF stronghold, Jamunamukh shall see a direct faceoff between Asom Gana Parishad's Sadik Ullah Bhuyan and AIUDF's Sirajuddin Ajmal. The latter is the brother of AIUDF supremo and Lok Sabha MP Badruddin Ajmal. Garnering 42.57% of the vote share in the 2016 polls, AIUDF's Rahim Ajmal beat Rejaul Karim Chowdhury by over 13,000 votes. Incidentally, Sirajuddin Ajmal had comfortably won this seat in 2011 when Chowdhury contested as a Congress candidate. TMC's Rezwan Ahmed, AJP's Bodrul Haque and JD(U)'s Jahirul Islam Laskar are also in the poll fray.

• Jalukbari: With Assam Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in the poll fray, Jalukbari is one of the most important constituencies going to the polls. In the last election, Sarma registered a mammoth victory over his Congress opponent Niren Deka by a margin of 85,945. On this occasion, Congress has given a ticket to Romen Chandra Borthakur. As BJP has not declared Sarbananda Sonowal as its CM face, there is speculation that the NEDA convenor might tip him to the top post. Incidentally, his campaign has been plagued by some controversies in the last few days.

Assam went to polls for the 2021 state Assembly elections in 3 phases, starting March 27 and ending on April 6. The Assam assembly election 2021 results vote counting will be held on May 2. Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a serious challenge from Indian National Congress (INC) and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP).  The 15-year tenure of late Tarun Gogoi as the Chief Minister of Assam had come to an end in the 2016 Assembly polls with the saffron party winning 86 seats against 26 seats won by the Congress.

Major alliances: 

However, in a blow for BJP in the lead-up to the 2021 Assam elections, its ally BPF decided to join the Congress-led alliance. While BJP is contesting 92 seats, it has allocated 26 and 8 seats to Asom Gana Parishad and the United People’s Party Liberal respectively. The BJP has refrained from announcing incumbent CM Sarbananda Sonowal as the CM candidate, leading to speculations that Cabinet Minister and NEDA convenor Himanta Biswa Sarma might be another contender for the post. 

The Congress, meanwhile, which ruled the state for 15 years from 2001 to 2016, has changed its electoral tactics and stitched together an alliance to leverage the consolidation of a previously fragmented anti-BJP vote base to recapture power in the state. It has formed a grand alliance- 'Mahajot' with BPF, AGM, AIUDF, API, CPI(M), RJD and JPP. In order to prevent possible poaching, the Mahajot shifted many of its poll candidates to Congress-ruled Rajasthan.