BJP projected to overcome anti-incumbency, sweep Maharashtra, Haryana

The BJP is likely to overcome the anti-incumbency factor in Maharashtra and Haryana – the two states which will go to polls in a single phase on October 21. As per the Opinion polls presented by Republic TV and Jan Ki Baat, the numbers predict that the BJP will easily overcome the anti-incumbency factor. In Maharashtra 288 seats are in play for contenders from key political parties – BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, NCP-Congress clubbed together, the AIMIM, the VBA and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. The results are expected to be announced on October 24.

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Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll predicts BJP to overcome vote-share, seat-share in Haryana and Maharashtra

The halfway mark for 288 seats in Maharashtra is 145; the Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll predicts that the BJP will win between 142-145 seats, 1.e. an average of 143 seats. In Haryana, 90 assembly seats are up for contest and the halfway mark is 46 seats – the Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll predicts that the BJP is likely to win between 58-70 seats, i.e. 64 seats on an average. In Maharashtra, the BJP is likely to get a hold of 33% of vote share, a four percent bump from the 2014 assembly polls during which it had got 28.1%. The vote- share for BJP is likely to jump from 56.7% from its previous 33.3% in Haryana. 

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Numbers for Maharashtra

Seat-Share

Vote-share

Numbers for Haryana

Seat-Share

Vote-share

READ | Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

Key events which unfolded ahead of the Maharashtra polls

Ahead of the polls, the Shiv Sena raked up Ram Mandir, despite the order in the matter coming on November 17. It comes at a time when the PMC bank scam greatly affected livelihoods of its customers. Republic TV's story revealing NCP's Praful Patel - D-gang member family too took place a few days ahead of the polls.

Key factors likely to decide Haryana polls

The Congress has lost face owing to infighting in the state which was evident after its former state chief Ashok Tanwar resigning from the party. Whereas, Manohar Lal Khattar and PM Narendra Modi's pro-development politics could pave the way for the BJP's victory.  Manohar Lal Khattar said the polls would be about nationalism just as PM Modi had also claimed earlier. Khattar said “Nationalism will be the deciding factor in the coming assembly elections. It has thrown caste arithmetic out of the picture.”

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