From Congress' upset win in Telangana to BJP's stellar show, top points from Matrize Exit Poll

According to the Republic-Matrize Exit poll 2023, both BJP and Congress are winning two states each in the Assembly Elections held in five states in November. While Congress is set to return Chhattisgarh and pull off a surprise win in Telangana, BJP is all set to dethrone the Congress party in Rajasthan and hold on to its over 18-year rule in Madhya Pradesh.

In Chhattisgarh, Congress is likely to win 44-52 seats in the 90-seat assembly, and the BJP will be restricted to 34-42 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, the incumbent BJP will cross the halfway mark of 116 seats by winning about 118-130 seats, limiting close rivals Congress to 97-107 seats. In Rajasthan, Congress may retain the tradition of no party being able to hold on to the state for a second consecutive term winning only 65-75 seats, way short of the magic figure of 100 seats in the 199-seat assembly. BJP is likely to register a sweeping victory in the state after winning 115-130 seats.

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Down south in Telangana, Congress is projected to get 58-68 seats, snatching power from BRS and in Mizoram, the Mizo National Front is likely to get 17-22 seats in the 40-seat assembly with BJP emerging victorious in just 1-2 seats and Congress in 7-10 seats.

Key takeaways from Republic - Matrize Exit poll 2023

Madhya Pradesh

Compared to the last Assembly elections, the main factor that has resulted in a favourable prediction for BJP is Congress' dismal show in the Chambal region. While the BJP has gained in 11 seats, the Congress has lost ground to their main challenger in 10 seats, as per the exit poll. BJP's performance in the Malwa Uttar region, which has the most number of seats in the 230-member Assembly, is also a key factor. BJP is expected to sweep the region by bagging 40 out of 63 seats. Compared to the last election results, the BJP has further widened the gap in this important region.

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Chhattisgarh

In Chhattisgarh, Congress seems to have a clear edge over BJP in the 90-member Assembly. As compared to the last Assembly elections, Congress has gained ground in the Central region, which accounts for 59 seats. This is being seen as the major reason as to why the Congress is likely to come back to power. The BJP, meanwhile, has gained in vote share in the North and the Bastar regions as compared to the last election.

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Rajasthan

From Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ‘Lal Diary’ jibe at CM Gehlot to BJP's big announcements on women welfare schemes, the BJP may have gained a foothold over regions that consist of the majority assembly seats in the state.

Congress has lost considerable ground in the Harouti and Marwad region, cumulatively accounting for 119 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, as per the Matrize Exit Poll survey. Drawing a comparison between 2018 and 2023 vote share of Congress in the Harouti and Marwad region, it shows that the number of votes secured by the grand old party in the region has significantly dropped.

In 2018, Congress had secured 39.5 % and 41.4 % vote share in the Harouti and Marwad regions respectively. While the Congress' vote share has dropped significantly to 33.1% and 35.6% respectively in these two key regions, the BJP's vote share has shot up by over 8% in both regions.

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Mizoram

Like last year, local parties have outperformed national parties like BJP and Congress. The incumbent MNF is engaged in a close battle with ZPM, as the exit poll shows. ZPM was no where in the picture in the last state elections. However, they are giving a tough competition to MNF, which had swept the last the elections with 25 seats.