From Congress' upset win in Telangana to BJP's stellar show, top points from Matrize Exit Poll

According to Republic-Matrize Exit poll 2023, both BJP and Congress are winning two states each in Assembly Elections held in five states in November. While Congress is set to return Chhattisgarh and pull off a surprise win in Telangana, BJP is all set to dethrone Congress party in Rajasthan and hold on to its over 18-year rule in Mhya Presh.

In Chhattisgarh, Congress is likely to win 44-52 seats in 90-seat assembly, and BJP will be restricted to 34-42 seats. In Mhya Presh, incumbent BJP will cross halfway mark of 116 seats by winning about 118-130 seats, limiting close rivals Congress to 97-107 seats. In Rajasthan, Congress may retain trition of no party being able to hold on to state for a second consecutive term winning only 65-75 seats, way short of magic figure of 100 seats in 199-seat assembly. BJP is likely to register a sweeping victory in state after winning 115-130 seats.

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Down south in Telangana, Congress is projected to get 58-68 seats, snatching power from BRS and in Mizoram, Mizo National Front is likely to get 17-22 seats in 40-seat assembly with BJP emerging victorious in just 1-2 seats and Congress in 7-10 seats.

Key takeaways from Republic - Matrize Exit poll 2023

Mhya Presh

Compared to last Assembly elections, main factor that has resulted in a favourable prediction for BJP is Congress' dismal show in Chambal region. While BJP has gained in 11 seats, Congress has lost ground to ir main challenger in 10 seats, as per exit poll. BJP's performance in Malwa Uttar region, which has most number of seats in 230-member Assembly, is also a key factor. BJP is expected to sweep region by bagging 40 out of 63 seats. Compared to last election results, BJP has furr widened gap in this important region.

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Chhattisgarh

In Chhattisgarh, Congress seems to have a clear edge over BJP in 90-member Assembly. As compared to last Assembly elections, Congress has gained ground in Central region, which accounts for 59 seats. This is being seen as major reason as to why Congress is likely to come back to power. BJP, meanwhile, has gained in vote share in North and Bastar regions as compared to last election.

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Rajasthan

From Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ‘Lal Diary’ jibe at CM Gehlot to BJP's big announcements on women welfare schemes, BJP may have gained a foothold over regions that consist of majority assembly seats in state.

Congress has lost considerable ground in Harouti and Marw region, cumulatively accounting for 119 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, as per Matrize Exit Poll survey. Drawing a comparison between 2018 and 2023 vote share of Congress in Harouti and Marw region, it shows that number of votes secured by grand old party in region has significantly dropped.

In 2018, Congress h secured 39.5 % and 41.4 % vote share in Harouti and Marw regions respectively. While Congress' vote share has dropped significantly to 33.1% and 35.6% respectively in se two key regions, BJP's vote share has shot up by over 8% in both regions.

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Mizoram

Like last year, local parties have outperformed national parties like BJP and Congress. incumbent MNF is engaged in a close battle with ZPM, as exit poll shows. ZPM was no where in picture in last state elections. However, y are giving a tough competition to MNF, which h swept last elections with 25 seats.