Haryana Exit poll projection: BJP to win 2/3 seats, Vadra-Cong routed

As  assembly polls of Haryana has been concluded on Monday, October 21, Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls predicts a second term for Haryana Chief Minister Mahar Lal Khattar. poll predicts a massive 52 to 63 seats for saffron party, while Congress is projected to get 15 to 19 seats. While newly formed JPP is projected to win 5 to 9 seats, INLD is projected to come down to 0 to 1 seats in state.   

2014 assembly polls 

BJP has bettered its position compared to 2014 assembly polls. In 2014 assembly polls when BJP came to power for first time in state, it won 47 seats. INLD won 19 seats while Congress won 15 seats. BJP h a voting percent of 33.3% and Congress, 20.6%. 

projection suggests that BJP in this year's assembly polls will do better than that of its 2014 performance, with almost 17 seat gain, as per projection. projection on vote share also shows an around 20% increase from 33.3% in last election to a predicted 56% w. While projection for Congress appears to be dismissal with Congress projected to get almost same seat share and vote share like  last election. INLD split seems to have cost party which is looking a projected 18 seat fall from its 19 seat tally of 2014 to 1 seat w and a fall in vote share too. newly formed JJP is projected to see a 25.6% vote share which is higher than vote share of INLD last election.

Haryana Seat Share prediction 
 

• BJP: 52 to 63
• Congress: 15 to 19
• JJP: 5 to 9
• INLD: 0 to 1
• Ors: 7 to 10

RE: Haryana Elections: Here are 5 seats which could go down to wire

Haryana Vote Share prediction 

• BJP: 56%
• Congress: 18%
• JJP: 10%
• INLD: 7%
• Ors: 9%
• Independent: 6%
• Akali: 6%

RE: Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

Lok Sabha elections 2019

saffron party clean swept state winning all 10 seats in Lok Sabha polls. vote share in state pattern in Haryana has been those leing in General Election, stake claim to power in elections that follow to state assembly. Jan Ki Baat’s projections reiterate same trend indicating pro-BJP sentiment. 

RE: Congress will be in 3rd or 4th position in Haryana polls: Ashok Tanwar

Big names and contest to watch for on October 24

1. Narnaund: Haryana Finance Minister and incumbent Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Captain Abhimanyu will face off against Congress’ Baljeet Sihag, Jassi Petwar from INLD and JJP’s Ram Kumar Gautam. seat has a rar interesting history prior to 2014. For, Ram Gautam has won elections as a BJP as well as Congress candidate in 2005 and 2009 respectively. In 2014 election, Abhimanyu won against Ram Singh Mor of INLD.  
    
2. Ellenab: Promising to be yet ar close contest for INLD’s Abhay Singh Chautala, Ellenab will witness or candidates such as Bharat Singh Beniwal from Congress and Pawan Beniwal from BJP. Chautala first won from this constituency 10 years ago by contesting  bypoll. Subsequently, he defeated BJP’s Pawan Beniwal in 2014. INLD has t lost this seat since 2000. 
    
3. Dri:  This will be ace wrestler Babita Phogat’s first electoral battle. Dri seat is defined by its narrow margins and tendency to throw up surprise winners. For instance, independent candidate Satpal emerged victorious in 2009 with a margin of only 145 votes. INLD won seat in 2014 Assembly election. Phogat will square off against Nitin Jangu from INLD, Major Nirpender Sangwan from Congress. According to Republic-Jan Ki Baat poll, she is slightly trailing behind. 
    
4. Kaithal: Congress communications in-charge Randeep Surjewala suffered a humiliating defeat in  Jind by-elections held earlier this year. Despite this setback, incumbent MLA from Kaithal is seeking re-election. While Surjewala was earlier an MLA in Narwana, he switched to this constituency in 2014. Anil Kumar from INLD and Leela Ram from BJP are his principal opponents. He too is facing possibility of losing election. 
    
5. Mahendragarh: Senior BJP leer and minister Ram Bilas Sharma has been locked in a one-to-one battle with Congress’ Rao Dan Singh since 2000. While latter defeated Sharma in three consecutive elections, margin of victory decreased with every successive victory. Finally, Sharma won in 2014 election by securing 83,724 votes against Singh who received 49,233 votes.  or key candidate is INLD’s Rajendra Singh.  

WATCH: Haryana polls: Fmr CM BS Hooda blatantly skips queue, pushes elderly

Methodology:

R. Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies.