Jharkhand Exit polls: JMM-Cong alliance projected to have an edge over incumbent BJP

With much-awaited results for Jharkhand State Assembly polls on Monday, Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls have predicted BJP failing to cross halfway mark in 81-seat Assembly. Congress-JMM-RJD (UPA) alliance is predicted to have an edge over incumbent BJP government. BJP which h a fallout with its ally All Jharkhand Students Union and Lok Janshakti Party, faces formidable combination of Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and or parties like LJP, AJSU, JVM. AJSU and LJP who are fielding candidates against BJP and UPA may combine with BJP post-results. 

Jharkhand Exit Polls:

Seat Share:

UPA is projected to win 37-46 seats defeating BJP which is projected to win only 22-30 seats. Meanwhile, AJSU is projected to win 3-5 seats, JVM is projected to win 3-4 seats. Or parties including  LJP, AJSU, JVM, CPI(M) are set to win 5-7 seats. 

• JMM+ : 37-46
• BJP: 22-30
• AJSU: 3-5
• JVM: 3-4
• Ors: 5-7

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Vote Share:

UPA is projected to garner 40% of vote share, leing over BJP which is set to gain 33% of vote share. Meanwhile, AJSU is projected to gain 9% of vote share and JVM is projected to gain 7%. Or parties are set to garner 11% of vote share.

• UPA: 40%
• BJP: 33%
• AJSU: 9%
• JVM: 7%
• Ors: 11%

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Key poll factors:

main factor which is working against BJP CM Raghubar Das is anti-incumbency. Das, who previously served under Soren government in 2009, is first n-tribal chief minister of state and hence is t tribal majority's pick for CM. Moreover, recent poll debacle in Haryana and Maharashtra may t favour incumbent BJP.

Ar factor that has angered tribals is attempted amendment to Chhotanagpur and Santhal Pargana tenancy Acts in 2016. While goverr Droupi Murmu h turned down amendments  in2017 after widespre protests from tribal groups,  Tribal visory Committee (TAC) heed by Raghubar Das h formed mulled over garing 'public opinion' on amending key points of se acts. This has led to widespre distrust against government in community.

Under Chhotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act, only a tribal can purchase or sell land to ar tribal belonging to same thana area with permission from DC concerned. CNT Act is t applicable in Santhal Pargana districts of Dumka, Godda, Pakur, Sahebganj, Jamtara and Deoghar, where Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act is in force. SPT Act does t allow any of land transfer.

Moreover, Pathalgi movement which is strong in se tribal areas is a major challenge faced by BJP government since 2017. Under this movement, activists have put up stone tablets in 200 districts of Jharkhand explaining provisions in Indian Constitution relating to tribal automy as interpreted by ivasis. state government has cracked down heavily against movement, booking sedition cases against almost 10,000 ivasis, as per reports.

last key factor is also current slowdown in coal industry. Jharkhand which amounts to 40% of total mineral resources in India has t translated in rise in jobs in area. dipping ecomy and scam-hit coal industry has been a worry for residents, which is unfavourable to BJP.

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2014 Assembly polls

last Jharkhand state polls saw BJP sweep elections after first Modi wave winning 37 seats. Along with an alliance with AJSU and some defected JVM MLAs, BJP successfully formed government ushering Jharkhand's first n-tribal CM. JMM which h held government in state mand to win only 19 seats, while Congress was left with only 6 seats.

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2019 Lok Sabha polls

Amid larger mandate victory of NDA, Jharkhand saw BJP retain its 12 Lok Sabha seats. JMM led by Shibu Soren mand to retain its 2 seats. Lok Sabha polls saw NDA re-elected to power with 353 seats, while UPA won only 92 seats.