Jharkhand: Jan Ki Baat founder explains factors that led to fall of Raghubar Das govt

final round of counting of votes in Jharkhand Assembly Elections is underway and alliance of JMM-Congress-RJD looks set to form new government in state. Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll which was conducted on Saturday has predicted results of Jharkhand Assembly polls with 100% accuracy. Jan Ki Baat founder and psephologist Preep Bhandari while speaking to Republic World on Monday explained factors which led to fall of Raghubar Das government in state.

'Anti-incumbency' factor

In Jharkhand, arrogance of Chief Minister and anti-incumbency against state government has led to BJP's defeat. In earlier state elections as well, when BJP government was in power, it was because re was anti-incumbency against Chief Ministers in those states, for example, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Mhya Presh and Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan.

'Rebel' factor

Preep Bhandari mentioned 'Rebel-factor' which was witnessed in recently concluded Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections as well where BJP rebels contested as Independents or from or parties like Shiv Sena. Despite giving a stable government in Jharkhand for five years, BJP is losing because at least 30 BJP members fought elections as Independents. Even outgoing CM Raghubar Das is trailing BJP rebel candidate and former minister Saryu Roy by over 10,000 votes in Jamshedpur (East) constituency, as per latest trends available on Election Commission website.

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'Modi' factor

Jan Ki Baat founder pointed out that whenever it is t about PM Narendra Modi, BJP has faced a deficit in that state. A state leership matters in Assembly elections. Bhandari said that "People people are w understanding that when y have to vote for Modi and when y do t have to vote for Modi."

Giving example of West Bengal, he said, ' Modi factor will work in West Bengal as re in anti-incumbency against Mamata Banerjee, but that will t be case in Delhi."

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Jan ki Baat predictions

As per predictions, UPA was projected to win 37-46 seats defeating BJP which was projected to win anywhere between 22-30 seats. Meanwhile, AJSU was projected to win 3-5 seats, JVM was predicted to win 3-4 seats. Meanwhile, or parties including  LJP, AJSU, JVM, CPI(M) were set to win 5-7 seats. Jan Ki Baat Exit polls prediction was only Exit Poll to have predicted that fight between Raghubar Das and Saryu Roy would go down to wire and it won't be easy for Das to win that seat. As per latest trends according to Election Commission, BJP has won 11 seats and leing in 15 seats. Congress has won 8 seats and is leing in 7. JMM has won 12 seats and is leing in 18 seats. 

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