BJP Going to be No. 1 Party in Bengal: Prashant Kishor's Big Prediction

New Delhi: Ahead of Lok Sabha Elections 2024, poll strategist and Jan Suraaj leader Prashant Kishor has made a big prediction saying that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will emerge as number 1 party in West Bengal. In an interaction with PTI editors, Kishor also said despite BJP's apparent dominance, neir party r Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible, pointing out that opposition had three distinct and realistic chances of stopping BJP juggernaut but frittered away opportunities because of laziness and misplaced strategies.

Kishor has worked for many major parties, including BJP, Congress and regional satraps, of different ideological moorings since 2014 but has dedicated himself to his Jan Suraj Yatra in his home state Bihar since October 2022 with a stated goal to usher in a new politics in state. PK had also helped Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee in her campaign for 2021 Bengal polls which saw her return to power with a landslide victory.  

What Will Happen in Telangana, Odisha, Bihar And Bengal? 

"y (BJP) will eir be first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing. y will be number one in Odisha for sure. You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, BJP is going to be number one party in West Bengal," he said. In Tamil he said, BJP's vote share may hit double-digit percent.

Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala toger account for 204 seats in 543-member Lok Sabha but BJP couldn't cross 50 seats in all se states put toger eir in 2014 or 2019 when it won 29 and 47 constituencies respectively.

He, however, asserted that BJP is unlikely to win 370 seats, its target set for polls. In Andhra Pradesh, where assembly polls will be held alongside Lok Sabha elections, he said Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy will find it "very difficult" to come back. Kishor had worked for Reddy in 2019 when his YSRC party had vanquished incumbent Telugu Desam Party, w a BJP ally.

Reddy, like former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, has gone into a "provider" mode for his constituents, instead of being a fulfiller of people's aspirations. He likened situation to yesteryear monarchs who took care of ir people with doles and largesse but thing more.

Similarly, Reddy has ensured cash transfer to people but has done little to provide jobs or boost stagnating development of state, he said.

'BJP will feel heat only if…'

Speaking of Lok Sabha polls starting from April 19, he said BJP will feel heat only if opposition, especially Congress, can ensure that it loses at least around 100 seats in its strongholds of rth and west India. And that's t going to happen, he says.

"By and large, BJP will be able to hold its ground in se regions," he said.

BJP has made a major and visible push to expand in south and east India over years as its top leaders like Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have frequented se states. On or hand, opposition has made little effort in se states.

"Count number of visits prime minister had made to Tamil Nadu in last five years versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any or opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. n how you will get success," he said in an apparent swipe at Rahul Gandhi.

‘Cant win India unless you win Hindi heartland…’

Asked about his take on Rahul Gandhi's reported reluctance to contest from his family's pocket borough Amethi after losing seat to Smriti Irani in 2019, he said opposition party cant win country by winning Kerala alone.

"If you do t win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, re is benefit if you win from Wayanad. Strategically, I can say that letting that (Amethi) go will only send a wrong mess," Kishor said He ted that Modi had chosen to contest from Uttar Pradesh in addition to his home state Gujarat in 2014 "because you cant win India unless you win Hindi heartland or have a significant presence in Hindi heartland." With opposition parties coming toger to form INDIA bloc to take on BJP, he said an alliance is neir desirable r effective to defeat ruling party as re is already a one-on-one contest in nearly 350 seats.

BJP has been winning because parties like Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP and Trinamool Congress are unable to take it head-on in ir own turfs, he said.

y have narrative, face or nda, he said.

Kishor, though, rejected suggestions that a third straight win will clear path for a long era of BJP domination, ting that decline of Congress began after it registered its biggest win in 1984 and has since been unable to come to power on its own.

"This is a big illusion," he said of BJP's perceived unstoppable march under Modi, while ting that opposition parties, especially Congress, failed to capitalise whenever ruling party was on backfoot after 2014.

He said BJP had a long barren phase electorally in 2015 and 2016 when it lost several assembly polls except in Assam but opposition allowed it to make a comeback.

party again had a poor run post-demonetisation after its win in Uttar Pradesh assembly polls in 2017 when it almost lost power in Gujarat and was defeated in several states in 2018, but Congress "blundered" in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Modi suffered from a dip in his approval ratings following Covid outbreak in 2020 and BJP lost badly in West Bengal. Instead of mounting any challenge, opposition leaders sat at ir homes, allowing prime minister to make a political comeback, he said.

"If you keep dropping catches, batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter," Kishor said.

As a political observer, he is more focused on post-poll scenario as to what will happen if Modi gets ar big mandate, more so as prime minister has frequently spoken about "big decisions" to be taken in his third term.

While BJP supporters are happy about "fundamental changes" coming, he said, those opposed to party ideologically or orwise are worried if big decisions will adversely impact Constitution or democracy. People in middle are also genuinely concerned, he said.

(With PTI Inputs)