Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why BJP has not maxed out in Hindi heartland states

BJP's victory in Rajasthan, Mhya Presh and Chhattisgarh indicates that saffron party is a force to reckon with when it comes to Hindi heartland states. Out of three states, BJP's strong show in MP is truly striking. Even after Shivraj Singh Chauhan's 15-year long stint as CM, party managed to secure an overwhelming majority. Keeping anti-incumbency at bay, party workers on ground, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tireless campaigning, helped BJP secure an easy win.

On or hand, Congress was unable to tide over voter fatigue and anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Ahe of 2024 Lok Sabha polls, has BJP reached its pinnacle in Hindi belt or is re room for expansion?

Now, question arises, after this recent sweep, wher BJP has maxed out in Hindi heartland or not? If we take a deep dive into BJP's performance in last Lok Sabha election, we see that ruling party at Centre has enough firepower to better its performance in Hindi belt. If we are to assume that PM Modi's image has only gotten stronger since 2019, buoyed by recent Assembly polls success, we can see that party has enough room for expansion even where it has tritionally done well.

According to data from India Votes , total number of Lok Sabha seats in Hindi Belt are 225. Compared to 2014 general election, BJP's seat share fell to 183 in 2019 from 190. BJP can still better its count with INDI alliance partners squabbling over seat-sharing. ditionally, BJP's vote share in Hindi heartland states was 53.3% in last general election.

BJP's not-so-secret weapons for 2024: Ram Mandir and UCC

re are two narratives that BJP can use to increase both its seat share and vote share in Hindi heartland. se narratives can go a long way in consolidating Hindu votes.  ditionally, Uniform Civil Code (UCC) can also be seen as a medium to drive Muslim women voters closer to party. biggest example is from 2017 Assembly election polls in Uttar Presh where party received a historic mandate. With PM Modi bringing up criminalising triple talaq in his rallies ahe of polls, party's seat share in Muslim dominant regions was no less than miraculous. PM Modi's strategic move was a hit among Muslim women voters. party won from regions where it h no presence before. Now, with UCC, promising to bring equal inheritance laws and option rights for Muslim women, this move can turn out to be a game-changer.

Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya is being seen as party's or Brahmastra ahe of Lok Sabha elections. mega event is being seen as a narrative that can break caste lines across UP and Bihar. In UP, BJP h lost 18 seats to opposition back in 2019. In Bihar, party will take on combined might of RJD, JDU and Congress.  

Ripple effect of BJP's surprise CM picks across North

Interestingly, BJPs CM picks for MP and Chhattisgarh indicate that BJP aims at creating ripple effects across Hindi belt. Choosing a CM from Yav community in MP, BJP is strongly placed to challenge Akhilesh Yav's votebank in UP and and that of Tejaswi's in Bihar. This can be seen as a potent tool to blunt INDI alliance's caste-survey ploy.

With Mohan Yav hailing from OBC community, move could possibly have some ripple effect across UP and Bihar, where Yavs form a considerable votebank. On or hand, choosing a tribal leer as CM in Vishnu Deo Sai is also seen a masterstroke in Chhattisgarh. For first time in history of state, a tribal leer has been chosen at top post. Tribal community constitutes around a massive 30% population of Chhattisgarh. This can work wonders in neighbouring Jharkhand, where tribal population is around 26%. Not to forget ripple effect this move can have in states like West Bengal, where tribal population is almost 6% and Orissa, where tribal population is around 22.84%. Last year, BJP's surprise move to nominate Draupi Murmu from tribal community as India's president furr cements party's massive outreach.