Lok Sabha Polls: SWOT Analysis of Parties in West Bengal

Kolkata: The TMC, plagued by corruption allegations, internal power struggles, and having withdrawn from the opposition INDIA bloc in the state, is going solo in the Lok Sabha polls to thwart BJP's march and keep its flock together.

The upcoming elections carry significant stakes for TMC leader and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. A defeat could potentially spark a wave of defections from her party to the saffron camp, reminiscent of the post-2019 political landscape.

This scenario threatens the stability of the TMC government which is continuing in the state since 2011.

Riding on issues of worsening law and order, corruption, atrocities on women and CAA, the BJP is sniffing a chance of not only repeating its 2019 performance of winning 18 seats but also raising its tally before it takes on TMC in the assembly polls in 2026.

For the Left and the Congress, which are in alliance talks, having failed to win even a single seat in the last assembly polls, it is a fight to prove their electoral existence in Bengal.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC won 22 seats, the Congress won two seats whereas the BJP won 18 out of the 42 seats in the state.

Elections will be held in the state in seven phases between April 19 and June 1.

Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis of the parties.

STRENGTHS

TMC

•  Chief Minister and party supremo Mamata Banerjee is widely popular, while BJP lacks a comparable leader in Bengal.
• TMC has a well-established organisation.
• TMC has implemented various welfare schemes aimed at women who comprise 50 per cent of the electorate.
• The ruling party is counting on the consolidation of the minorities (which comprise around 30 per cent of the electorate), subalterns, and a section of the Bengali elite post the implementation of CAA in the state.
• TMC has campaigned against the BJP-led Centre on alleged withholding of MGNREGA funds.

BJP 

• The Narendra Modi factor, which keeps the party way ahead of its rivals in the state.
• Effects of CAA implementation on Matua and the refugee population.
• Discontent against TMC over corruption, worsening law and order and the recent incidents in Sandeshkhali.
• Strong backing of RSS which has made deep inroads in the state.

Left-Congress 

• Left-Congress has been making a slow and steady comeback in elections.
• Left –Congress combine can provide an alternative to the minorities, apart from TMC * A probable third front for people who want to vote against TMC but don’t want to go with BJP.
• Left has rejigged leadership and brought in a lot of young faces.

WEAKNESSES 

TMC

• TMC is grappling with internal power struggles between senior and younger leaders.
• Allegations of corruption have tarnished TMC's image.
• Infighting and dissatisfaction over candidate selection
• In Sandeshkhali, women accused TMC leaders of being involved in sexual abuse and land grabs.

BJP 

• The organization, after the defeat of the 2021 assembly polls, is still in tatters.
• Exodus of its elected MLAs and MPs to TMC.
• Dissidence over the choice of candidates. 
• Lack of strong state-level leaders.
• Counter-polarization revolving around CAA.

Left- Congress

• Weak or non-existent organization at ground level in several areas.
• Credibility issues as Left-Cong are part of INDIA bloc along with TMC.
• Lack of strong leaders.

OPPORTUNITIES

TMC

• Opposition is split between BJP and Left-Congress.
• CAA could help TMC divert voters' attention from issues like corruption and Sandeshkhali.
• Reclaiming seats lost to BJP in 2019 could help TMC maximise its parliamentary representation to enhance its negotiating power in a potential opposition alliance government.
• After walking out of INDIA in Bengal, the challenge lies in proving that it can resist BJP's march on its own.

BJP 

• BJP gets a chance to win the “semi-final” before taking on TMC in the 2026 assembly polls.
• Polls provide the BJP with an opportunity to unify its state unit.

Left-Cong 

• It provides an opportunity to prove its existence in Bengal.
• Regain its space as TMC’s main opposition in the state.
• Restore its place in Bengal’s political plot.

THREATS 

TMC 

• Losing elections to BJP might trigger a spate of defections.
• If the BJP wins over 21 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats, it might be difficult for the smooth functioning of the TMC government.
• Protests of Sandeshkhali might dent the women's vote bank. 
• Corruption charges might take a toll on the party's performance in the Lok Sabha polls.

BJP

• Losing the election to the TMC might trigger a spate of defections, a repeat of the post-2021 political plot.
• Fear over CAA and NRC might impact BJP’s prospects in closely contested seats.

Left -Congress  

• Failing to win an adequate number of seats, might lead to both the Left and the Congress moving towards political obscurity in the state.
• If it fails to win an adequate number of seats, it would prove that the INDIA alliance is a defunct force in the state minus the TMC.