Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Result 2023: BJP likely to form government

polling for all 230 assembly constituencies in Mhya Presh took place in a single phase on November 17 and votes will be counted on December 3, 2023. ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are main contenders in state apart from Aam Ami Party (AAP), Samajwi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) who want to make ir presence felt.

After three consecutive victories in Mhya Presh elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013, BJP lost to Congress in 2018 but stormed back to power in March 2020 when Kamal Nath-led government collapsed. 

In this election, saffron party faces a significant challenge of overcoming incumbency factor. On or hand, Congress is raising alleged corruption in Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government.

key candidates in Mhya Presh are CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Budhni, senior Congress leer Kamal Nath from Chhinddwara, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar from Dimani, BJP's Kailash Vijayvargiya, and Congress' Jitu Patwari from Rau among ors.

While Congress has declared veteran leer Kamal Nath as its CM candidate, BJP has left field wide open for chief ministerial aspirants. For a long time, CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained face of BJP. However, this time, in a change of strategy, saffron party has fielded three Union Ministers and four Members of Parliament (MPs) in an attempt to blunt anti-incumbency against Chouhan.

Mhya Presh Exit Poll Results: Matrize predicts simple majority for BJP

A close battle is predicted between BJP and Congress in Mhya Presh with saffron party having a slight edge, according to Matrize's exit poll. BJP is forecasted to get 118-130 seats, Congress 97-107 seats and ors 0-2 seats. majority mark is 116 in 230-member MP assembly.

Matrize Exit Poll predicts that Congress will get 41.7 per cent vote share in Mhya Presh, including 40.2 per cent in Chambal region, 42.8 per cent in Mahakaushal, 44.8 per cent in Malwa Tribal, 43.7 per cent in Malwa Uttar and 36.4 per cent in Vindhya region.

Gain/Loss in vote share

On or hand, BJP will get a total vote share of 43.4 per cent in state, including 41.4 per cent in Chambal region, 43.1 per cent in Mahakaushal, 43.3 per cent in Malwa Tribal, 48.4 per cent in Malwa Uttar and 39.7 per cent in Vindhya region.

MATRIZE exit poll methodology

MATRIZE has attempted to gauge voters' opinion in exit poll. samples in this survey have been collated by speaking to various people. Our team has collected samples from 678 seats in 5 states. We have collated 323800 samples from 5 states. 145710 women and 178090 have been part of survey. Samples have been collected from November 7, 2023 to November 30, 2023. re could be +-3 difference in results.

Disclaimer: methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. Pollsters n use a probabilistic model to determine number of seats a party is going to win from estimated vote share.