Maharashtra: BJP-Sena could gain 20 seats each, Congress-NCP nosedive

With 288 seats up for grabs during the crucial Maharashtra assembly polls, Republic TV and Jan Ki Baat present a survey ahead of the voting. As broadcast on Republic TV on Thursday, Pradeep Bhandari's Jan Ki Baat brought you the projections for the state of Maharashtra. The state will go to polls in a single phase on October 21 and the NDA, with BJP and Shiv Sena alliance at the core, and the UPA with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party clubbed together, and AIMIM, Prakash Ambedkar's VBA are the key players. Below are the vote-share and seat-share projections.

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Seat Share projections for Maharashtra

As per the Jan Ki Baat poll BJP is projected to get 142 to 147 seats and an average of 143 seats. The Shiv Sena is likely to bag 83 to 85 seats and average of 84 seats. The Congress is projected to get 21 to 23 seats, and an average of 22 seats. The NCP is projected to get 27 to 29 seats or 28 seats at an average. Based on the projections, both BJP and Shiv Sena are expected to gain  an average of 20 seats each. The BJP and Shiv Sena during the 2014 assembly polls had won 122 and 63 seats respectively. Whereas, the number of seats won by Congress is likely to nosedive from from 42 in the 2014 assembly polls to an average of 22 seats. Similarly, NCP's seat shares is likely to plow down from 41 in the previous assembly polls to an average of 28 seats.

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Vote share projections for Maharashtra

In terms of vote share, the projection is that the BJP will get 33% vote share which is 4.9% more than the 28.1% tally of 2014. This means the CM Fadnavis-led  BJP will not only retained his core voters but expanded his base over the five years. The vote share of the Shiv Sena is projected to move upwards to a 24% from the 19.5 % vote share of 2014 -- a 4.5% increase. The Congress vote share is projected to be at 11% which 7.1% less than the 18.1% vote share of 2014. The NCP is projected to see a decline in vote share by 2.4%from 17.4% last election to 15%. Raj Thackeray’s MNS is projected to see a setback in vote share from 3.2% last election to 1% now, a 2.2% decline.

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Key events which unfolded ahead of the Maharashtra polls

Ahead of the polls, the Shiv Sena raked up Ram Mandir, despite the order in the matter coming on November 17. It comes at a time when the PMC bank scam greatly affected livelihoods of its customers. Republic TV's story revealing NCP's Praful Patel - D-gang member family too took place a few days ahead of the polls.