3 signs that indicate that Sharad Pawar may have something up his sleeve

Even as the Sharad Pawar led NCP is holding emergency meets and trying to shift their MLAs reportedly to the Renaissance Hotel in Mumbai, there seems to be growing speculation as to what the NCP Chief’s next move will be. While nothing is certain in politics, signs, and indicators can always be read into. The signs in the rolling developments may point to the fact NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar might just have something up his sleeve that doesn’t meet the eye. This could be either in terms of consolidation of his 54 MLA flock to swing towards the NCP-Sena-Congress alliance and thereby bring down Ajit Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister or a larger plan in which Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar are working in cahoots. 

What the signs are eventually indicative of will only be decided on the floor of the house or in the span of the next few crucial political days, here are 3 signs that may be read into: 

SIGN 1: NCP MLAs not taken to a non-BJP state

On 11 November, as the Maharashtra political impasse played out, the Congress had shifted their MLAs reportedly to Jaipur in Rajasthan -- which is a Congress-ruled state. The idea seemed to be to keep the flock together in a safe backyard.  However, in the case of the NCP MLAs, at least as per the information streaming in as per sources, the legislators are not moving out of Mumbai, which means that Sharad Pawar is trusting them within a BJP-ruled state. Could that be a larger message going out? 

Ahead of the Rajya Sabha by-polls in Gujarat, the Congress, to avoid poaching of its flock by the BJP, shifted its MLAs reportedly to Mount Abu in Rajasthan-- which was again ruled by the Congress. Therefore, the pattern here is: If the opposition party or any party wants to safeguard its MLAs -- it shifts the MLAs to a safe state which is not ruled by the party which it fears will poach. Could that be a larger political message going out in the Maharashtra case which drops a hint about Sharad Pawar’s next move? 

SIGN 2: NCP MLAs Renaissance hotel connection

In July this year when the Karnataka rebel MLAs were in the Renaissance Hotel in Mumbai, BJP MLAs too were reportedly spotted in the same hotel. Now, sources say that Sharad Pawar has shifted his MLAs to the same Hotel. Why would Sharad Pawar shift his MLAs to a hotel which has already been visited by other BJP MLAs to allegedly meet rebels in the context of another state? Could this be indicative of Sharad Pawar’s larger plan at play which may be in the works behind-the-scenes

READ | Maharashtra: 'BJP will have to pay the maximum price', says Congress General Secretary  

SIGN 3: BJP is oozing with confidence

The BJP has 105 MLAs of its own and reports claimed that it has the support of 36 NCP MLAs along with Ajit Pawar and 8 MLAs from the Shiv Sena. If this is true, doing the math, we see that the total number of seats of BJP with Ajit Pawar and the alleged rebels rises to 149-- which is past the halfway mark. Now the catch here is that 7 MLAs who had allegedly attended Ajit Pawar’s swearing-in have reportedly gone back to Sharad Pawar. Should this twist be true, the BJP number would be at 142 -- a borderline below between the requisite number.

Despite this borderline difference and despite the fact that Chhagan Bhujbal came out and declared that Sharad Pawar had the support of 48-50 MLAs, the BJP was still oozing with confidence. Even BJP Leader Shweta Shalini, who is known to be an advisor to Devendra Fadnavis, on The Debate with Arnab Goswami said that if a floor test is held, the BJP would easily get the support of more than 145 MLAs. Where are the arithmetic and the extra numbers coming from? There seems to be more than what meets the eye.   

On Sunday morning, the 3 Judge Bench of the Supreme Court will be hearing the plea filed by the Maha Vikas Agadi alliance against the formation of the Fadnavis Government. Along with the Supreme Court verdict, what will be watched will be Sharad Pawar’s next move. Pawar has held his cards close to his chest in the last 28 days. The question is: Does he have a potential trump card or move that is yet to be disclosed?

READ | Sharad Pawar dials Congress' Ahmed Patel after crucial meeting with NCP MLAs: Sources