A COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if preventive measures not in place: ICMR study

New Delhi, Apr 7 (PTI) An ICMR study has found that a COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if preventive measures such as lockdown and social distancing are t implemented, Union health ministry said on Tuesday.

With preventive measures in place, possibility of infection can be reduced to an aver of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in same period, Joint Secretary in Ministry of Health Lav Agarwal said.

Citing Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) study, Agarwal said that current 'R0' or R naught for coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.

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'R0' is a mamatical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It tells aver number of people who will catch a disease from one infected person.

"If we take 'R0' to be 2.5 n one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days if lockdown and social distancing measures are t in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 per cent n that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons," Agarwal said, highlighting importance of ongoing 21-day lockdown and social distancing.

He appealed to people to opt social distancing and follow lockdown order, saying this is a very important intervention in terms of manment of COVID-19.

death toll due to vel coronavirus rose to 114 and number of cases in country climbed to 4,421 on Tuesday, according to Union Health Ministry.

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