Graph shows the trend of India's Covid cases versus what may have been but for measures

As India entered its fourth week of a nationwide lockdown, aimed at curbing spread of COVID-19 infection that has cure yet, new cases continue to be reported. According to aver data analysed for states with regards to confirmed Coronavirus cases, growth rate is on rise in last few days. 

However, number of cases has been doubling every 10 days instead of every three days — which would have been situation before lockdown, according to mamatical modelling posted by Shamika Ravi, a senior fellow at Brookings Institute, India centre, and a former member of Prime Minister’s Ecomic Advisory Council.

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According to aver data analysed for states with 150+ confirm Coronavirus cases, growth rate is on decline in last few days. total number of coronavirus cases in India on Tuesday morning stood at 19,984. More than 3,869 people have recovered from COVID-19 so far while 640 people have died. In past 24 hours, around 50 deaths and 1383 new cases have been reported.

Ravi has been posting daily updates on rate of COVID-19 infection in India, and her analysis over weeks has shown several trends.

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Health Ministry on India's doubling rate of COVID-19

Earlier on Monday, India's doubling rate of COVID-19 — number of days in which cases double — has improved to 7.5 due to lockdown, as against 3.4 before nationwide lockdown, Union Health Ministry said. rate of recovery of COVID-19 patients in country has also improved to 14.75%, even as rate of increase in fresh positive cases has jumped.

"We calculate doubling rate of cases at regular intervals. When we calculated it based on data of last seven days, we found that India's doubling rate which was 3.4 before lockdown has w improved to 7.5. Ar good news is that 18 States have a better rate than national aver," joint secretary for Health, Lav Aggarwal, told reporters in a press briefing.

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READ | COVID-19: India's Doubling Rate Improves To 7.5 Post Lockdown; Recovery Rate At 14.75%