Goa opinion poll 2022: P-MARQ Opinion Poll predicts edge for BJP over Congress

As Goa is scheduled to go for Assembly polls for all 40 seats on February 14, the P Marq Opinion Poll has predicted that the BJP may emerge victorious by a close margin while the Congress may end up emerging as the main opposition party.

The latest pre-poll survey conducted by PMarq has projected 16-20 seats for the BJP while the Congress may end up winning 9-13 seats. For the AAP, PMarq has projected 4-8 seats while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is predicted to secure 1-5 seats. 

Methodology

The survey was conducted in all districts across the 5 states. Random stratified sampling was the methodology used with predominantly three techniques including Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. And to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share, the probabilistic model was used.

To reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender, and caste, the survey results have been adjusted in proportion. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect on the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election There is an error margin of 3%. 

Concerning the Goa state, the sample size of the study was 3,450. The survey was conducted during the time period from January 5 to January 16. 

Goa opinion poll 2022 results

Goa Poll 2022 prediction: BJP-led state government performance

To this question, 23 per cent of respondents agreed that the BJP-led government performed excellently while 27 per cent of the participants disagreed and categorized the rule under 'poor'.

Goa Election 2022 prediction: Who will be the CM of Goa?

As per the PMarq poll projections, 30 per cent of the total respondents said, BJP leader and current Chief Minister Pramod Sawant is predicted to be the CM of Goa. 

Goa Assembly elections 2022 prediction: Biggest challenges faced in the state

To this question, 28 per cent of the total respondents believed that unemployment was the major issue faced in the state. 

Goa Polls 2017

Goa went for elections on February 4, 2017, and the result was declared on March 18, 2017. After the result announcement, though Indian National Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats, failed to stitch an alliance with any of the smaller parties to form the government. And so BJP with 13 seats in hand with the support of GFP and MGP and independents formed its government. 

Since 2012, BJP has been in power in Goa. And as per the poll prediction, if BJP wins the 2022 Goa election, it will be defending its work for the last 10 years. Pramod Sawant who was appointed as the Chief Minister after the Late CM Manohar Parrikar passed away in 2019 due to Cancer, BJP will be fighting under his leadership.