How Axis My India Bucked The Trend, Predicted Accurate Exit Polls: Pradeep Gupta Tells Arnab

Election Results 2024: Pollster Pradeep Gupta, chairman of the Axis My India, whose exit poll predictions turned out to be accurate for Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections said that it's the result of his team's hardwork on the ground. Axis My India had predicted that the Mahayuti would win somewhere between 178-200 seats in Maharashtra elections while in Jharkhand, the JMM-led alliance would repeat the government with JMM+ winning 53 seats and BJP getting restricted to 25. Axis My India's survey was the only one which bucked the trend as most exit polls predicted a victory for the NDA in Jharkhand also.

Speaking to Republic Media Network's Arnab Goswami, Pradeep Gupta said that face to face interviews with the representatives across the demography and geography of the states and doing analysis on whatever they said. We put our weight on different factors including socio economic and released numbers at the time of the exit poll.

In both Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, there was a pro-incumbency. We couldn’t find much people saying that they were discontent or angry with the incumbent leadership, Pradeep Gupta said adding if a government repeats, it only happens on one factor which is delivery, delivery and delivery on the basis of various social welfare schemes, facilities given to farmers, etc.

Focussing on Maharashtra, Pradeep Gupta said that the Dalits and Adivasis (tribals) who shifted to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Lok Sabha came back to support Mahayuti alliance in Assembly elections. He said that 10 per cent of the Dalits, 15 per cent of tribals returned from MVA to Mahayuti.

In Maharashtra's Vidarbha region which has a total of 62 seats, the Mahayuti won 50 of them. Pradeep Gupta also mentioned that women voted more for Mahayuti than the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

In Mumbai, where the polling increased from 50 in 2019 to 55 per cent in 2024, increased the size of the Mahayuti’s victory as we predicted 200 odd seats but it went upto 230.

Pradeep Gupta mentioned that this was their 79th elections out of which they have been accurate on 73 occasions including the US Presidential elections.