HUGE: UN's forecast for India's FY21 GDP growth higher than Moody's & ADB's, despite Covid

India's GDP growth for current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 percent, a UN report has said, warning that COVID-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse ecomic impacts globally. UN 'Ecomic and Social Survey of Asia and Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable ecomies' said that COVID-19 is having far-reaching ecomic and social consequences for region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial links.

India's GDP growth for fiscal year 2019-2020 was estimated at 5 percent and is forecast to slow down to 4.8 percent for current fiscal 2020-21. Ecomic growth for country could stand at 5.1 percent for fiscal year 2021-22, report said. report ted that se are very preliminary forecasts based on data and information available up to March 10.

"As COVID-19 pandemic is still evolving rapidly and showing signs of abating as of March 31, 2020, its negative impacts on ecomic performance of countries and territories in Asia and Pacific will likely be very significant,” a disclaimer accompanying GDP chart for ecomies in Asia and Pacific in report says.

"India’s ecomic growth declined considerably by more than earlier estimate (5 per cent in 2019 compared with previous estimate of 7 per cent), as uncertainties ahead of general election and tighter credit conditions weighed on manufacturing activities and investments. Weakness in income growth and a rising unemployment rate also undermined consumer sentiment. Its exports were affected by global trade tensions as well, while extreme wear events -especially rainfall - disrupted agricultural activities,” ESCAP report said.

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report ted that COVID-19, first reported in China and subsequently globally, has significantly increased downside risks to Asia and Pacific region’s near-term ecomic outlook.

"While pandemic was initially expected to affect primarily China’s ecomy (mostly in first quarter of 2020), its spread worldwide, including in Asia-Pacific region, could result in significant adverse ecomic impacts. "High ecomic integration regionally and internationally could exacerbate ecomic slowdown through multiple channels, such as trade, tourism and financial markets,” it said.

report cautioned that despite measures to contain COVID-19, such as quarantines, suspension of productive activities and lockdown of cities, spread of vel coronavirus has already adversely affected regional and global ecomies. “ regional ecomic impact is anticipated to be greater than that experienced 17 years ago when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) broke out," it said for outlook for Asia and Pacific region adding that it is t only because of China's growing ecomic importance but also because of increasingly globalised production structures.

Preliminary estimates by ESCAP suggest that Asia-Pacific region's GDP could experience declines of 0.6-0.8 per cent (valued at $132 billion to 172 billion) as a direct result of COVID-19 pandemic through trade links alone.

report ted that global ecomy is experiencing a significant slowdown. In 2019, global ecomic growth is estimated to have expanded at its slowest pace since 2008, at 2.3 percent, a sharp deceleration from 3 per cent growth in 2018. Growth is forecast to slow to 2.0 per cent in 2020 before experiencing a modest pick up in 2021, as global ecomy loses growth momentum amid a pandemic and an uncertain ecomic and geopolitical environment.

Furr, against an increasingly uncertain global environment, ecomic growth in developing countries and territories of Asia-Pacific region weakened considerably in 2019 to 4.3 per cent, a sharp slowdown from 5.3 per cent in 2018 and 5.0 per cent projected earlier for 2019. slowdown was led by large ecomies, namely China, India and Russia.

COVID-19 pandemic has affected supply chains and disrupted manufacturing operations around world. It ted that pharmaceutical industry is facing shorts in supply of raw materials. "India, which produces 20 per cent of world’s drug supply by volume, imports from China 70 per cent of raw materials for manufacturing such pharmaceuticals. If COVID-19 pandemic is prolonged, supplies are anticipated to be disrupted.”

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report emphasised that in order to overcome effects of global pandemic requires whole world, including Asia-Pacific region, to strengn cooperation and coordination.

It took te of recent call by India to South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) leaders to coordinate virus containment measures. India proposed establishment of a COVID-19 emergency fund under SAARC and offered an initial contribution of $10 million in this regard.

report said that since at least start of millennium, Asia-Pacific region has been engine powering global ecomic expansion. region's strong ecomic growth has more than tripled people’s income and largely improved ir access to basic services, such as health care, education and electricity. As a result, about one billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty mostly in China and India in past two decades