India's COVID-19 statistics: Reading the tea leaves

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has been holding out daily bulletins on COVID situation in country. Union Ministry has been updating COVID-19 case statistics on its official website. But what do se numbers really indicate? 

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Here is a breakdown of COVID-19 statistics of India: 

21393 COVID CASES, 29 DAYS INTO LOCKDOWN

India has seen a total of 21,393 cases on 29th day of lockdown to arrest pandemic. All eyes of experts will be on this number for next 10 days, after which nation-wide lockdown is scheduled to end, should situation come under control. 

LOWEST SPIKE  IN 18 DAYS

total increase in cases on Thursday morning was a spike of 7.05%. This spike rate is lowest India has witnessed in past 18 days. In fact, daily spike has been consistently lowering for past 4 days from 20 April. Should daily spike continue to lower, India could edge towards flattening curve. 

A PROJECTED 10.75 DOUBLING RATE

daily spike on Thursday was 7.05%. Should this daily spike remain consistent, with increase or decrease, total number of cases would double only after 10 whole days. 

It is crucial to remember that on 5 April, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, h said, “Our doubling rate at present is 4.1 days. But if ditional cases reported due to Tablighi Jamaat event h t taken place, n doubling rate would have been 7.4 days.” potential doubling rate on day 29 of lockdown is a marked improvement from this projection. 

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ONE-FIFTH HAVE RECOVERED

On Thursday,  Ministry of Health and Family Welfare recorded a total of 4,257 recovered cases of COVID. This 19.89% of all COVID cases in country. Meaning, one-fifth of all COVID cases in country today, are people who have recovered. 
 
 3.18% FATALITY RATE, HALF GLOBAL AVER

India as on Day 20 of lockdown has a fatality rate of 3.18%. approximate global fatality rate is 6.97%. This means India has half fatality rate as global aver. fatality rate in US has been 5.6%, fatality rate in Spain has been 10.4% and fatality rate in Italy has been 13.39%. 
 
OVER 5 LAKH COVID TESTS CONDUCTED

ICMR has alrey tested a total of 5,00,542 samples, that have been collected from 4,85,172 individuals. overall testing to positive ratio in India is 4.49% as on Day 29 of Lockdown.

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