Maha Saffronisation: BJP's Record-Breaking Surge in Maharashtra and Beyond

The 2024 assembly elections have marked a turning point in India's political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cementing its dominance through a series of stunning victories. The most notable of these is in Maharashtra, where the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has shattered records, not just with its sheer numbers but also with its strategic outreach and pro-incumbency momentum. The verdict, which has redefined political equations,
underscores the saffron sway across the nation while delivering a crushing blow to the Congress party and its allies.

Let’s delve into the key takeaways from the electoral results and explore how BJP's strategic might, alliance power, and welfare schemes have translated into an unprecedented electoral triumph.

Maha Saffronisation and BJP's Record Performance

In Maharashtra, the BJP has achieved its best-ever performance, securing 133 seats with a vote share of 26.62%, up from 105 seats and a 26.1% vote share in 2019. This is a historic achievement, especially when viewed in the context of the party’s long-term vote share trends. In 2014, the BJP had a slightly higher vote share of 28.1%, but this time, despite a marginal decline, the party gained 11 additional seats, showcasing the effectiveness of its
ground-level strategy.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, which includes the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), has made history by crossing the 200-seat mark, a first for any alliance in the state. Together, the Mahayuti leads in 233 of the 288 seats, dominating 80.9% of the assembly. In stark contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), trails at a mere 51 seats (17%).

This performance has redefined Maharashtra's political dynamics, with the BJP emerging as the driving force behind the Mahayuti's success. Notably, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) delivered 33 seats with a 12.44% vote share, cementing its place as a significant ally in the alliance.

BJP vs. Congress – A National Perspective

Across the four major assembly elections in 2024, the BJP's dominance over Congress has been striking. Out of 549 assembly seats, the BJP has won 231 seats, achieving a win rate of 42%, while Congress has managed just 75 seats, translating to a dismal 14% win rate.

In Maharashtra, the numbers are even starker. Congress has plummeted to its worst-ever performance, winning only 16 seats, down from 44 in 2019. By contrast, the BJP has increased its tally by 28 seats in the same period.

Other States Tell a Similar Story

In Haryana, BJP scaled up from 40 seats in 2019 to 48 in 2024, despite anti-incumbency pressures.

In Jharkhand, BJP retained 21 seats, while Congress stagnated at 16 seats. In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP increased its tally from 25 to 29 seats, while Congress was reduced to just 6 seats.

Rahul Gandhi's leadership has proven catastrophic for Congress, as evident from the party's single-digit win rates and failure to retain relevance in key states.

Pro-Incumbency Under Modi’s Leadership

The 2024 results further affirm a significant pro-incumbency wave under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. States like Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra have demonstrated that BJP’s governance model and welfare initiatives resonate with voters, defying traditional anti-incumbency trends.

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won 163 seats in 2023, up from 109 in 2019, a remarkable gain of 54 seats.

In Tripura, BJP secured 31 seats and a second term along with its ally in 2023, despite a marginal drop from 35 in 2018. In Arunachal Pradesh, BJP expanded its mandate from 41 seats in 2019 to 46 seats in 2024.

Maharashtra exemplifies this trend, with the BJP breaking its previous records to emerge stronger despite being in power for a decade.

Uddhav Thackeray's Decline and the Role of Women Voters

The elections have also marked a significant low point for Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, which managed just 20 seats, the party's worst performance in history. The previous worst was in 44 seats in 2009.

In contrast, BJP’s strategic focus on women voters through welfare schemes like the "Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Behan Yojana" paid rich dividends. As compared to the lok sabha elections, women’s voter turnout in Maharashtra increased by 6 percentage points, reaching 65%, driven by direct cash transfers and targeted outreach.

The Phenomenal Saffron Sway

In 2014, BJP ruled over 7 states while Congress controlled 13 states. Fast forward to 2024, and the tables have turned dramatically. BJP now rules 15 states on its own, with a combined total of 21 states when including allies. On the contrary, Congress now rules only 3 states, with little to show for its long history of national dominance. This shift in political power not only reflects BJP’s growing influence in state politics but also underscores Congress’ diminishing relevance in contemporary Indian politics.

The 2024 assembly elections have not just been a victory for the BJP but a resounding endorsement of its governance model, strategic acumen, and alliance management.

Maharashtra’s saffronisation stands as a testament to BJP’s ability to consolidate power, counter opposition alliances, and deliver record-breaking performances despite challenges.

On the other hand, Congress’s catastrophic collapse across states underscores a leadership crisis and a failure to adapt to the changing political landscape. The party’s dwindling seat share and vote base signal an urgent need for introspection and reinvention.

A Glimpse into BJP's Future

Looking forward, BJP’s victory in 2024 paves the way for even greater consolidation of power, with the party not only expanding its reach but also strengthening its grip over key states. With its dominance in Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra, the BJP is poised to continue its unprecedented streak of success. Modi’s government has managed to hold on to power while countering anti-incumbency in several states, an impressive feat in a time when voter sentiment tends to favor change.

BJP’s success lies in its ability to adapt, reorganize, and present itself as a party that can deliver economic growth and social welfare. Under the leadership of Modi, the BJP has not only capitalized on national issues like security and development but has also played a key role in local governance, creating an impression of a party that truly understands the needs of India’s diverse population.

The 2024 verdict, with its massive BJP surge, is not just a victory — it is a signal of what’s to come in the years ahead.