Modi-Factor Continues To Steam Roll Everyone in 2024 | Explained

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’s leadership, managed to draw the year to a close on a magnum opus knockout electoral victory. A historic win in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections and a sweeping victory in by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan , Madhya Pradesh , Assam , Uttarakhand, Bihar , Gujarat and Chhattisgarh has once again proved that the political landscape in India remains firmly under the spell of PM Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP. As the last electoral battle of this year concluded on Saturday, the 'Modi factor' once again proved to be the defining force of the 2024 electoral verdicts, which continued to reshape the nation's political narrative.

As a series of state and Lok Sabha elections conducted throughout the year, PM Modi's leadership kept dominating the nation’s political landscape, leading people to speculate whether anyone would be able to challenge his leadership and would be able to resist his growing impact on the large population in and outside the country.

Starting with the Arunachal Pradesh Assembly election, the BJP went to electoral battle in eight states with the support of its allies as the NDA in 2024 and ended the year’s record by registering a thumping 6-2 victory. Apart from Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand , the BJP-led NDA managed to win the Assembly elections in six states with a comfortable margin including the states like Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha , Haryana and Maharashtra.

From Andhra Pradesh to Haryana, from Maharashtra to Odisha, the influence of the Prime Minister has been felt across the geographical stretch of India. Even as the Congress , regional parties, and other opposition alliances attempted to challenge him, his party, BJP's performance consistently outpaced expectations, leaving political experts and analysts to eventually call the electoral results a clear testament to PM Modi’s power of spreading popularity.

Modi-Factor Secured Record-Breaking 3rd Term in General Elections

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, held in April and May, were indefinitely the biggest political event this year. This year’s general election witnessed a clear continuation of the BJP's dominance under Prime Minister Modi at the national level after he led the party to a record third consecutive term at the Centre and subsequently took charge as the Prime Minister for the third time, a feat unparalleled in Indian political history in the post-independence era.

The BJP-led NDA, aided by a combination of strong messaging on national security, development, and economic growth, secured a mandate in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 293 seats in the lower house of Parliament. PM Modi's campaign, marked by a focus on "New India," economic reforms, and national pride, resonated with a broad population of voters, from urban professionals to rural communities, and won the BJP 240 seats alone.

Not only the BJP but if the political analysts are to be believed, PM Modi’s wave, despite a negative promotional agenda by the Opposition parties on the Constitution and the caste, helped the allies as well in outnumbering other political parties in their respective states. The BJP-ally the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won 16 seats, the Janata Dal (United) won 12 seats, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena won 7 seats and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) won 5 seats.

The opposition parties repeatedly failed to mount a significant challenge, despite several attempts to unite under a "grand alliance". Even regional powerhouses like Mamata Banerjee 's Trinamool Congress ( TMC ) in West Bengal and Arvind Kejriwal ’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) were unable to pose a significant challenge at the national level before the Modi factor.

It is pertinent to mention that, despite, several accomplishments in the kitty, including, the abrogation of Article 370, the construction of Ram Mandir , the much-talked-about government's foreign policies, and various government schemes, the BJP chose to push the narrative in the name of PM Modi, citing “MODI KI GUARANTEE”.

Earlier, in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a thumping majority, by securing 282 and 303 seats respectively. 

Modi-Factor In Assembly Elections

This year, the country witnessed Assembly elections in as many as seven states and one Union Territory, including Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir respectively. The BJP-led NDA managed to win six out of eight of them:

1. In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP has its government under Chief Minister, Pema Khandu.
2. In Sikkim, the BJP ally Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) has its government under Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang.
3. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP-led NDA is ruling the state under TDP Chief and Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu .
4. In Odisha, the BJP has its government under Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi.
5. In Haryana, the BJP has its government under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini.
6. In Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti is all set to form the new government.  

The statistics indicate that the momentum created by the Modi-factor continued to spill over into the state assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections throughout the year. In states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra, the BJP continued to perform exceptionally well, while in Odisha, the party took over the charge creating history. While in the other two states, the BJP allies formed the government in support of the party and formed the government.

In Maharashtra, the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP alliance, Mahayuti, emerged victorious in the state assembly elections, securing a mandate that appeared unassailable despite the challenges posed by the MVA parties, including the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP(SP). The saffron party's win here was seen as a significant blow to the Congress and its allies, including Uddhav Thackeray’s party, which had been considered a formidable force in the state.

Opposition Struggles to Find a Foothold

Political analysts feel that a weak opposition against PM Modi, has been continuously making his job quite consistent and smooth. On the other hand, despite the sweeping victories for a few years, the opposition has failed to corner the BJP and Prime Minister Modi on various issues. The Congress and other parties have repeatedly pointed out issues such as unemployment, economic disparities, and growing religious polarisation as evidence that PM Modi's tenure has been far from flawless.

The experts, however, feel that despite these criticisms and picking issues against the ruling party and the government, the opposition has struggled to present a credible alternative to PM Modi before the voters.

The formation of various alliances - such as the "Mahagathbandhan" in Bihar or efforts to unite anti-BJP forces in Uttar Pradesh - or efforts to unite the entire political parties against the BJP on one platform under a new alliance called INDI Alliance - failed to match the BJP's organisational strength and PM Modi’s personal appeal.

Not only stature, but the opposition parties have also been unable to match the BJP’s campaign machinery, which remains one of the most formidable in the world, making the party, the world’s largest political party. Additionally, the Opposition, appears, to lack the thought process in picking issues against PM Modi, which will work in their favour in cornering the prime minister. So far, the track record shows that the issues picked by the Opposition against PM Modi have felt flat on most of the occasions. 

Will There be Rival to the Modi Factor?

The dominance of the Modi factor appears unlikely to wane in the near future. The BJP's electoral expertise is in full swing, and its national and state strategies continue to finely connect with the voters. Above all this, the continued absence of a united and credible opposition against PM Modi remains the most glaring challenge before them in a vast and competitive democratic process like India.

In 2024, as the electoral battle settles for the year, one thing is clear Narendra Modi and the BJP remain the players in the spotlight in Indian politics. Whether this dominance will extend into the next decade or whether a new challenger will rise remains the key question for Indian politics.

The experts assert that in the present scenario and based on the BJP and Opposition’s track records, it appears that the "Modi factor" will remain the unstoppable force in the electoral landscape in the coming years. This is the reason, despite the presence of influential leaders in the party, in various states, the BJP continues to take electoral conflict in the state assembly polls, in the name of the only trusted face in the party, Prime Minister Modi.