Monsoon in India likely to be 'below normal' this year, says Skymet

Private wear forecaster Skynet, on Wednesday, said that 2019 monsoon in India is likely to be “below rmal" at 93 percent of Long Period Aver (LPA) owing to developing El Ni in Pacific Ocean.

El Ni is part of a routine climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperature in tropical Pacific Ocean rises above-rmal levels for an extended period of time. This possesses higher risks for eastern parts and a major portion of central part of India. 

aver or rmal rainfall in country this year can be defined between 96 and 104 percent against a 50-year aver for entire four-month monsoon season, which is 887 mm.

Skymet said that deficit rains are likely to spill during July with monsoon having ‘a very sluggish start’.

Furrmore, Managing Director of Skymet, Jatin Singh told reporters that second half of monsoon season is predicted to be better with August and September expecting to see rmal rainfalls.

“ Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than aver. model projections call for 80 percent chance of El Ni (wear-producing phemena) during March-May, dropping to 60 percent from June to August. This means, it is going to be a devolving El Ni year, though retaining threshold values all through season. Thus, Monsoon 2019 is likely to be below rmal," he said.

Mahesh Palwat, Vice President (Meteorology and Climate Change) of Skymet said once El Ni tamps down, neutral conditions will eventually set out which will allow some improvement in rainfall.

" saviour factor could be IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which is likely to be in neutral or positive phase during Monsoon. Thus, it may be able to absorb some of El Ni blues and possibly would support rainfall during second half of Monsoon," he said.

Karnataka, some parts of Maharashtra, southwest Mhya Presh, Bihar, Jharkhand along with rastern states are among areas that will be affected due to deficient rains. 

President of Skymet, G. P. Sharma, on or hand, said that Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and coastal Andhra Presh are likely to receive more rainfall.  onset of monsoon cant be predicted at this moment and it has relation with overall rainfall country receives, he said.

rainfall in June will be 77 percent (126 mm) of LPA while it will be 91 percent (263 mm) in July, 102 percent (266 mm) in August and 99 percent (171 mm) in September.

“Due to pre-monsoon activities, temperature in national capital will be under control this summer”, ded Palwat.

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(With ncy inputs)