Manipur's BJP-led govt on the brink as 9 MLAs extend Congress support: Seat numbers here

In what is being termed as 'reverse Operation Kamala' in Manipur, 3 BJP MLAs - S Subhashchandra Singh, TT Haokip and Samuel Jendai - TMC MLA T Robindro Singh, National People's Party (NPP) MLAs - Y Joykumar Singh (Deputy CM), N. Kayisii, L Jayanta Kumar Singh and Letpao Haokip and Independent MLA Ashab Uddin resigned from BJP's coalition government and have extended their support to the Congress party.

The Congress party has said that it is confident of forming the new government under former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh. On Thursday morning, the grand old party is scheduled to meet Governor Najma Heptulla to stake a claim on the government. Even as there has been no response from the BJP camp on the unfolding situation, here is what the numbers reveal. 

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The numbers game

The Manipur assembly has 60 seats. In the 2017 Assembly elections, Congress won 28 seats and BJP 21. While the Congress emerged as a single largest party, NPP and Naga People's Front (NPF) won 4 seats each, LJP, TMC, and an Independent candidate won one seat each. Stitching a post-poll alliance with all non-Congress MLAs and one Congress MLA Thounaojam Shyamkumar, the BJP acquired the magic number and thus Governor Najma Heptulla invited the saffron party to form the government. Soon after, seven other Congress MLAs- Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh also joined the BJP-  and the numbers of BJP's coalition reached 40.

However, the grand-old party requested the Assembly Speaker to disqualify 8 of its former legislators though the petition remained pending. 

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In a major development earlier this year, the Supreme Court bench headed by Justice Rohinton Nariman in March restrained Thounaojam Shyamkumar Singh from entering the Legislative Assembly and disqualified him from being a minister with immediate effect. Soon after, the Assembly Speaker disqualified him as an MLA. Similarly, in June, the Manipur High Court restrained the other seven Congress MLAs who defected to the BJP from entering the state Assembly unless their disqualification petitions are disposed of by the Speaker.

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Thus, BJP lost 8 MLAs because of legal blockage. As three others resigned from the party and joined Congress, the number propelled to 11. Moreover, one MLA of TMC, four NPP MLAs and one independent MLA also pulled back their support. With this, the ruling BJP-led coalition has 23 MLAs left with it. 

On the other hand, Congress has 20 MLAs of its own as one member has been disqualified and seven rebels barred from entering the assembly. With the help of six MLAs who withdrew support from Biren Singh's BJP government, the Congress will have the support of 26 MLAs in the house whose effective strength in case of a floor test will be 52. The magic number for the parties will thus be 27. As all eyes are set on Manipur in the upcoming days, the number game suggests massive political chaos, horse-trading and a probable return of resort politics in the state. 

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