Manipur govt on the verge of collapse as 9 ruling coalition MLAs withdraw support

In a big jolt to N Biren Singh-led BJP government in Manipur on Wednesday, three BJP MLAs resigned and 6 or coalition MLAs including Deputy CM withdrew support. BJP MLAs S Subhashchandra Singh, TT Haokip and Samuel Jendai, TMC MLA T Robindro Singh, National People's Party (NPP) MLAs Y Joykumar Singh (Deputy CM), N. Kayisii, L Jayanta Kumar Singh and Letpao Haokip and Independent MLA Ashab Uddin have extended ir support to Congress party. Moreover, aforesaid three BJP MLAs officially joined Congress. This latest development implies that ruling coalition w enjoys support of only 30 MLAs (including Speaker) in 60-member house.

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numbers game

In 2017 Assembly elections, Congress party emerged as single largest party with 28 MLAs while BJP mand to win from 21 constituencies. 4 candidates of NPP and Naga People's Front (NPF) respectively emerged victorious in election. On or hand,  LJP, TMC, and an Independent candidate won one seat each. As BJP secured support of all n-Congress MLAs and one Congress MLA Thounaojam Shyamkumar, Goverr Najma Heptulla invited former to form government. 

Subsequently, 7 more Congress MLAs- Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh joined BJP. This propelled BJP-led ruling coalition's strength to 40. Meanwhile, Congress' disqualification petitions against 8 of its former legislators remained pending with Assembly Speaker.

However, situation changed dramatically after Supreme Court's verdict in case of T Shyamkumar. Subsequently, on March 28, 2020,  Assembly Speaker disqualified him as an MLA. On June 8, Manipur High Court restrained 7 Congress MLAs who defected to BJP namely, Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh from entering state Assembly unless ir disqualification petitions are disposed of by Speaker.

Thus, in eventuality of a floor test taking place, 11 MLAs (7 MLAs have been restrained by HC, 3 MLAs have resigned and Shyamkumar's seat remains vacant) will t be able to participate in voting process. In such a scenario,  BJP-led coalition can secure only 22 votes (excluding Speaker) as compared to Congress alliance's 26 votes in a 49-member house. This indicates that BJP government in Manipur faces a tough test of survival. 

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