National Approval Ratings: Despite JD(S)-Congress ruling alliance in Karnataka, BJP projected to retain single-largest party tag

Roughly midway between this year's Assembly election and upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections, political situation in state of Karnataka presents a fascinating topic of study, with alliance dynamics highly fluid despite fact that it is leader of third-biggest party in state, JD(S)' Kumaraswamy, who is chief minister, in alliance with second-largest party, Congress, while single-largest party BJP is in Opposition.

Here is National Approval Rating for Karnataka -- essentially, who would win if Lok Sabha polls were to be held at this point of time:

In terms of seat share, in 28-seat state, BJP is projected to remain strongest party, even going on to better its 2014 share (17 seats) with 18 seats. Similarly, in line with 2018 Assembly polls, Congress is projected to remain second largest party in Karnataka, both at state and national level, by winning 7 seats. However, this projection entails a 2-seat drop in comparison with Congress' performance of 9 seats in 2014. JD(S), meanwhile, which hasn't finalised alliance plans for 2019, is projected to increase its lower house seat share from 2 in 2014 to 3, in latest ratings.

Coming to voteshare, BJP, which had a share of 43.1% of votes in 2014, is projected to increase that percent to 44.3, while Congress' voteshare is projected to drop from 40.9% to 37.6%. JD(S), may benefit at Congress' expense, as its voteshare is projected to rise to 12.4% from 2014's 11%.

In comparison to last month's National Approval Ratings:

In terms of seat share, projection reveals a status-quo over of a month, as all parties have held firm. In terms of voteshare, however, situation is different, as BJP's projection is down from 46.5% to 44.3%, while Congress is projected to have racked up mir gains, from 37.1% to 37.6%. JD(S)' projection for voteshare has dropped from 13.4% to 12.4%.

Given constant complaining by Karnataka CM Kumaraswamy regarding his alliance with Congress, and JD(S)' closeness with Mayawati who has distanced herself from Rahul Gandhi's party, re is saying which way party supremo former PM Deve Gowda's pendulum will swing.