National Approval Ratings: In Andhra Pradesh, newly formed Congress-TDP alliance predicted to give tough contest to Jagan Reddy's YSRCP

The political landscape in Andhra Pradesh makes for a highly interesting study in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, particularly on account of chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's recent political forays. In 2018, Naidu's TDP has walked out of its long-standing alliance with the BJP over the issue of special category status for the state. Ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, Republic TV in collaboration with CVoter, has brought the December edition of the National Approval Ratings, which will enlighten on how the political flux may have affected matters on-ground in the context of elections.

Here is the Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Rating projection for the state of Andhra Pradesh, i.e. what would happen if elections were held right now:

Taking a look at the predictions of the National Approval Ratings, the 25-seat state of Andhra Pradesh is predicted to give the highest seat-share to Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP with the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP and Rahul Gandhi-led INC alliance coming a close second.  

YSRCP is projected to get 14 seats, while the INC+TDP alliance is projected to get 11 seats with TDP securing 8 seats and INC 3. The projections further predict YSRCP to get 41.6% vote share, while INC-TRS alliance is slated to secure 38.2 % vote share.

However, BJP is projected to fall to a massive loss with no seats won and only 11% vote share. Others are predicted to secure 9.3% vote share

Comparing the current numbers with October and November predictions:

In the November projections, the Naidu's TDP was significantly reduced to 5 seats while Jagan Reddy's YSRCP emerged as the single largest party while predicted to secure 20 seats in the state. BJP and INC(which was not in alliance with TDP until November) were projected to secure no seats.

In October edition, the YSRCP was projected to win 21, which has fallen to 14 in December, while TDP had received 4 seats which have now increased to 8, in alliance with Congress which had lost the state majoritarily comparing to December where it is predicted to secure 3 seats.

In 2014, NDA in alliance with BJP had won 17 seats, with 15 of those were secured by TDP and 2 by BJP. But since then, the alliance between the two has ended, with TDP slated to fight 2019 polls in alliance with Congress and BJP to contest on its own.

Alternative scenario:

If NDA forms a post-poll alliance with the YSRCP, Jaganmohan Reddy's party's 14 seats will go into the NDA's bag, thereby boosting the NDA fortunes and ensuring the BJP has a strong foothold in Andhra Pradesh despite losing to Chandrababu Naidu's TDP.