National Approval Ratings: In Karnataka, NDA projected to edge UPA in a nail-biting contest

Less than five months ahead of the General elections 2019, Republic TV in association with CVoter conducted the third edition of the National Approval Ratings. In Karnataka, which has 28 seats, it would have been a nail-bitter between the UPA and the NDA had the elections taken place in December.

The coalition of Congress and JD(S), which is in power in the state, is projected to be usurped by the BJP when it comes to the General elections, even though by a small margin. Despite being projected to have a better vote share (47.6 percent), the UPA is expected to win 13 seats [10 for Congress and 3 for JD(S)], two less than the BJP, despite them having a vote share of 42.3 percent.

Comparison to 2014:

In comparison to 2014, the BJP is down two seats from the 17 that it got in 2014. The Congress' individual tally is up by only one given the fact that it is slated to get 10 seats this time and the JDS’ individual tally is also up by only one. So despite five years of government at the Centre, the Karnataka voter doesn't seem to feel a dramatic degree of anti-incumbency or anger towards the Modi-led Central government. 

Interestingly, if we add the vote shares of 2014 of the Congress and the JDS, it would come up to 51.9%. But this time around, the vote share has fallen down to 47.6%. Theory behind the decrease in vote share could be that the two parties have lost their individual support base by coming together.

Prediction in October and November:

In the November edition of the National Approval Ratings, BJP-led NDA, despite not being in power in the state, was projected for a comfortable win with 18 seats. Congress was projected to win seven seats, while JD(S) only managing three seats.

READ: National Approval Ratings: Despite JD(S)-Congress Ruling Alliance In Karnataka, BJP Projected To Retain Single-largest Party Tag

It was in line with the projection in October, with the seat-share exactly the samem and the only difference being in terms of vote-share. 

READ: National Approval Ratings: In Politically Complex Karnataka, NDA Likely To Win 18 Seats Leaving 7 For UPA & 3 Seats For JDS