Published 23:16 IST, October 4th 2018

National Approval Ratings LIVE | BJP or Congress: Who will win if elections are held today?

The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter presented the National Approval Ratings.

Reported by: Shatabdi Chowdhury
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Update at 8.56 pm: West Bengal:  As per National Approval Ratings, TMC to win 25 out of 42 seats in West Bengal, BJP to gain massively in state.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

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UPA=1

NDA=1

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TMC=25

ORS-1=0

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VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=7.6

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NDA=31.2

CPM=14.9

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TMC=39.6

ORS-1=6.7

Update at 8.53 pm: Uttar Pradesh:  As per National Approval Ratings, BSP-SP alliance projected to win 42 seats.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=2

NDA=36

MGB=42

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=5.7

NDA=44.3

MGB=44.8

ORS-2=5.3

Update at 8.52 pm: Uttarakhand: As per National Approval Ratings, Congress to lose all seats in state. 

Update at 8.43 p.m: Telangana:  As per National Approval Ratings, KCR will be boss in Telangana with 9 seats

Update at 8.37 p.m: Tamil Nadu: As per National Approval Ratings, DMK set to make a big comeback in state.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=0

NDA=2

DMK=28

AIADMK=9

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=3.7

NDA=8.8

DMK=39.4

AIADMK=23.5

ORS=24.7

Update at 8.35 p.m: Sikkim: As per National Approval Ratings,  SDF which held single seat in 2014 for NDA is set to retain it for NDA.

Update at 8.33 p.m: Rajasthan: As per National Approval Ratings, NDA seat share dips from 25 to 18 in state.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=7

NDA=18

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=42.9

NDA=47.1

ORS=10.1

Update at 8.28 p.m: Punjab: As per National Approval Ratings, big win for Congress in Punjab.

Update at 8.27 p.m: Puducherry: As per National Approval Ratings, NDA to lose Puducherry seat.

Update at 8.22 p.m: Odisha: As per National Approval Ratings, massive setback for Naveen Patnaik's BJD, BJP projected to win 13 seats in state.

Update at 8.18 p.m: Maharashtra: As per National Approval Ratings, split with Shiv Sena to cost NDA.

Update at 8.10 p.m: Madhya Pradesh: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP to win 23 out of 29 seats.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=6

NDA=23

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=42.0

NDA=49.4

ORS=8.6

Update at 8.07 p.m: Nagaland: As per National Approval Ratings, it’s status quo in Nagaland with NDA retaining 1 seat that it won in 2014, that was by NPF.

Update at 8.05 p.m: Mizoram:  As per National Approval Ratings, re seems to be status quo again re’s just one seat in seat and Congress which won it in 2014 is looking to retain it.

Update at 8.02 p.m: Meghalaya: As per National Approval Ratings, re seems to be status quo in Meghalaya as well in terms of seat-share and vote-share.

Update at 8.01 p.m: Manipur: As per National Approval Ratings, in Manipur, re’s a projected direct shift of 2 seats from Congress to BJP

Update at 8.00 p.m: Lakshadweep: As per National Approval Ratings, Congress will retain only state.

Update at 7.55 p.m: Kerala: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP will be failing to make inroads in Kerala and Congress will be winning 16 out of 20 seats in state.

Update at 7.44 pm: Karnataka: As per National Approval Ratings, BS Yeddyurappa-led BJP will be gaining big in state.

Update at 7.35 pm: Jharkhand: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP projected to drop from 12 to 8 seats.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=5

NDA=8

JVM=1

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=39.0

NDA=42.3

JVM=6.7

ORS-2=12.0

Update at 7.22 pm: As per National Approval Ratings, UPA to win 4 out of 6 seats in Jammu-Kashmir.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=4

NDA=2

ORS-1=0

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=37.3

NDA=30.1

PDP= 13.9

ORS=18.7

Update at 7.22 pm: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP to sweep state.

Update at 7.20 pm: Haryana: BJP projected to beat INLD, Congress in Haryana.

Update at 7.14 pm: Gujarat: As per National Approval Ratings, Gujarat to remain BJP bastion.

Update at 7.13 pm: Goa: With 2 seats up for grabs in Goa and Mahar Parrikar taking ill, re is a lot of anticipation as to Goa’s fate. As of w, it seems as though out of 2 seats, 1 will go to BJP and or to Congress so Parekar factor may be of some impact for BJP

Update at 7.10 pm: DELHI: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP will sweep Delhi.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=0

NDA=7

ORS-1=0

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=28

NDA=41.7

AAP=26.5

ORS-2=3.2

Update at 7.04 pm: Daman & Diu went with BJP in 2014 and is projected to go with BJP in 2019. However, it is interesting to te that both BJP and Congress have been projected to see a downward spiral in vote-share.

Update at 7.04 pm: As per National Approval Ratings, a solo seat up for grabs in Dadra and Nagar Haveli. It was with BJP in 2014 and it is likely to go again with BJP as per October, 2018 projections.

Update at 6.52 pm: Chhattisgarh: As per National Approval Ratings, Raman Singh-led BJP to sweep Chhattisgarh.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=9

UPA=3

CJC=0

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=48.2

UPA=39.1

CJC=8.5

ORS=4.3

Update at 6.52 pm: Chandigarh: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP projected to win lone Chandigarh seat.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=1

UPA=0

ORS-1=0

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=42.0

UPA=28.9

AAP=12.8

ORS-2=16.3

Update at 6.27 pm: As per National Approval Ratings, allies to help BJP to sweep Bihar.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=31

UPA=9

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

NDA=46.2

UPA=33.7

ORS=20.1

Update at 6.21 pm: Assam:  As per National Approval Ratings, AIUDF to lose ground in Assam, gains for NDA in seat share.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=4

NDA=9

ORS-1=1

ORS-2=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=40.3

NDA=45.4

ORS-1=3.4

ORS-2=0

Update at 6.18 pm: Arunachal Pradesh: As per National Approval Ratings, UPA projected to lose ground in state.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=0

NDA=2

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=40.3

NDA=56.7

ORS=0

Update at 6.02 pm: Andhra Pradesh: As per National Approval Ratings, YSRCP's Jaganmohan Reddy will be king.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION: 

UPA=0

NDA=0

ORS-1=21

ORS-2=4

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=7.2

NDA=12.5

ORS-1=41.9

ORS-2=31.4

Update at 6.00 pm: Andaman & Nicobar Islands: As per National Approval Ratings, BJP is going to pick up solo seat in same way that it did in 2014.

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION: 

UPA=0

NDA= 1

ORS=0

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION:

UPA=39.4

NDA=43.2

ORS=0


With Lok Sabha elections 2019 inching closer, Republic and CVoter presented National Approval Ratings to give complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held today. National Approval Rating is largest, most accurate and most studied survey of length and breadth of this country to bring most realistic picture of mood of electorate if elections were held today.

2018 has been a blockbuster year so far as far as political landscape of India is concerned. While BJP mand to form government in 3 states this year, eir in alliance or on its own, gaining a massive lead over Opposition, Congress, by forming government in Karnataka by tying up with JDS, saved itself from being out of power in all large states, save for Punjab. Out of 4 states, which went to polls this year, BJP has its government on its own in Tripura and with alliance partners in two states, namely, Meghalaya (with National People’s Party), Nagaland (with Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party), whereas Congress mand to form government in Karnataka with JDS as its alliance partner.

political narrative could change as India is still looking at elections in 5 states, namely, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Telangana. So far, situations are t looking very favorable for Congress as in 3 out of 5 states, party would be fighting incumbency and to top that, Mayawati dumping Congress and going alone in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan elections has delivered hammer-blow to Mahagathbandhan dream of Opposition to defeat BJP in 2019 elections. In Telangana, too, situation is grim for Congress, as after dissolving state assembly, caretaker Chief Minister KCR anunced 105 of 119 assembly candidates from his TRS party, however, he didn’t anunce candidates for any of seats where BJP MLAs were incumbent, setting in motion speculations of TRS allying with BJP.

results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may t reflect results or scenarios of state assembly elections, neverless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter presented National Approval Ratings.

16:14 IST, October 4th 2018