Punjab opinion poll: P-MARQ Poll predicts neck & neck fight between AAP-Congress

With less than a month to go for the assembly elections in Punjab, the PMARQ Opinion Poll has presented a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in the state. With its 117 seats, Punjab goes to the polls on February 20, and results of the same will be announced on March 10. Of the number of parties in fray like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Punjab Lok Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Opinion Poll has made a promising projection for AAP. 

For Punjab, which goes to the polls in a month, the Opinion Poll projects that AAP may bag 50-56 seats (37.8 %) of the total 117 seats, Congress 42-48 seats (35%), SAD 13 to 17 seats (15.8%), BJP 1-3 seats (5.7%) and others 1-3 seats (5.6%).

Here is what the region-wise projections indicate:

Going to the region-wise analysis, Punjab can be divided into three-wide regions namely Majha, Doba and Malwa. 

Majha

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 23 out of 25 seats in the region. Only three seats were won by the SAD-BJP alliance – two by Akali candidates and one BJP candidate won while AAP won no seats.

As per the PMARQ Opinion Poll, Congress will win 12-16 seats, AAP 7-11 seats. SAD 1-3 seats, BJP 1-2 seats and others 0-1 seats. 

Doaba

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 15 out of 23 seats in the region. SAD-BJP alliance won 5 seats, AAP won 2 seats and others won 1 seat. 

As per the PMARQ Opinion Poll, Congress will win 10-14 seats, AAP 7-11 seats, SAD 1-3 seats, BJP 0-1 seats and others also 0-1 seats. 

Malwa

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 40 out of 69 seats in the region. SAD-BJP alliance won 8 seats, AAP won 18 seats and others won 3 seats. 

As per the PMARQ Opinion Poll, Congress will win 17-21 seats, AAP 31-39 seats, SAD 10-14 seats, BJP 1-2 seats and others also 0-1 seats. 

Opinion Poll: Who do you prefer as the CM of the state?

Republic-P Marq predicts incumbent Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is the preferred choice with 29.7% of respondents. Bhagwant Mann is the second choice with 21.4% respondents. Sidhu is third with 14.6% respondents. 

Methodology

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is an error margin of 3%.

The PMARQ Poll was conducted with a sample size of 11,000 individuals in the state of Punjab from January 6 to January 16. The survey not only beams the overall state-wise prediction, seat and vote share, but it will also forecast the performance of the government and preferred Chief Minister.