Trump's H-1B visa suspension could benefit existing holders, have limited impact on India

US President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order to temporarily suspend nonimmigrant visas (NIV) — H-1B, H-2B, certain H-4, H-L, and some H-J visas — with the stated objective of preserving jobs for American citizens. Individuals receiving the above visas, or seeking entry into the US for the first time from June 24, 2020, till December 31, 2020, won't be allowed. Indians are the largest pool of foreign workers that get H-1B visas and those are popular among multinational (especially IT) companies to cater to their US clients. 

However, sources say Trump's decision could end up benefiting existing H-1B visa holding Indians in the form of higher remuneration and result in higher remittances as the ban may result in the shortage of skilled workforce (especially in the STEM-related fields) in America. A related argument has already been made from the US point of view, with industry leaders like Google CEO Sundar Pichai and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk arguing that immigrants' contributions have been immense and that the category of persons who benefit from these visas are actually net job-creators.

"Currently, there are more than 3 Lakh Indian H-1B visa holders in the US. The new policy is not going to impact the existing H-1B visa holding Indians in the US, in fact this may turn out to be more beneficial to them," said sources.

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Limited impact on India

Sources also said the US President's proclamation will impose new challenges and possibly force more work to be performed offshore as local talent is not available, which, once again, could benefit Indian companies. US issues around 85,000 H-1B visas every year, and on average Indians get about 60,000 of these (70% of all H-1B visas issued). Since the restriction is for six months, the number of visas that would be impacted in the best case would be 30,000. However, in view of the rising unemployment and weak economic conditions due to coronavirus, the US would have issued much lesser visas (say around 5-10,000) and this proclamation would have limited effect, sources say.

India also stands to benefit from the availability of highly skilled individuals which were all set to leave for the US (with H-1B visas). These highly skilled individuals are in high demand in the science and technology sectors in India, and they can directly contribute to India’s progress by staying back.

Employment-based temporary visas

For Indians, H-1B for IT professionals, B-1 and B-2 visas for business or travel purposes, and F-1 for students are some prominent non-immigrant visas. H-1B visa allows US employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise.

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