Uttarakhand opinion poll: P-MARQ Poll predicts close race between BJP & Congress

elections for 70-member Uttarakhand Assembly will take phase in a single phase on February 14. major political parties in fray are ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress and debutant Aam Aadmi Party. P-MARQ has conducted a comprehensive survey to bring on-point Opinion Poll on 2022 Assembly polls.

Methodology

methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We n use a probabilistic model to determine number of seats a party is going to win from estimated vote share. survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect state and district population across groups, religion, and caste. questions in survey were designed to reflect current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge critical factors that might play a role in this election. re is error margin of 3%.

P-MARQ Poll was conducted with a sample size of 6,670 individuals in state of Uttarakhand from January 6 to January 16. survey t only beams overall state-wise prediction, seat and vote share, but it will also forecast performance of government and preferred Chief Minister.

Uttarakhand opinion poll: Who will win?

Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP is likely to retain power with party projected to win 36-42 seats in 70-member Assembly. On or hand, Congress is likely to see major gains. grand old party is projected to win 25-31 seats, while debutant AAP can win 0-2 seats. or parties and independents are likely to win 1-3 seats.

20% of respondents termed BJP government's performance in state as excellent while 29% termed it good. 36% of respondents believed it was aver while 15% termed it poor. On Centre's front, 31% of respondents were super happy with PM Modi government's performance and called it excellent, 33% termed it good, 24% aver and 12% poor, respectively.

Opinion Poll: Who do you prefer as CM of state?

Current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami was first choice for top post of 34% of respondents, while 37% of respondents were in favour of Congress' Harish Rawat. Aam Aadmi Party's Col Ajay Kothiyal received support from 9% of respondents. 8% of people also believed that anybody from BJP can be at helm position in state.

Opinion Poll: Which is biggest issue according to you?

Unemployment has been termed as biggest issue by 34% of respondents, followed by an increase in fuel prices and essential commodities (24%), bad roads (14%), corruption (7%), Lack of widespread availably of water (6%) and or issues (15%).

Are you satisfied with performance of your MLA? (Survey conducted in BJP constituencies)

Which is biggest factor for your vote?

Political scenario in Uttarakhand-

In 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly election, Harish Rawat-led Congress government lost power after BJP won 57 seats in 70-member House. reafter, Trivendra Singh Rawat served as  Chief Minister of state until 9 March, when he resigned because of a "collection decision" taken by BJP top brass. His successor and Lok Sabha MP Tirath Singh Rawat's tenure as CM was also short-lived and was replaced by Pushkar Singh Dhami as  Election Commission was unlikely to conduct a by-election owing to COVID-19 situation.

AAP has tried to make inroads in state in last few months with a mass outreach campaign titled 'Uttarakhand me bhi Kejriwal', increasing online presence besides regular visits by high-profile leaders such as Manish Sisodia. However, n-BJP and n-Congress parties have failed to make any gains in Uttarakhand so far which is evident from failure of Uttarakhand Kranti Dal, SP and BSP. While AAP has declared Colonel (retd.) Ajay Kothiyal as its CM face, Congress is yet to confirm wher Harish Rawat will be projected as its Chief Ministerial candidate.