Why the biggest monsoon since 1994 may prove good for India till 2020

As Southwest monsoon season in India draws to a close, prolonged rains triggered due to climate change may have a silver lining. As explained by Skymet, 2019 has been an El Niño year, due to which re has been large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction due to global warming. As predicted by Skymet, this year witnessed a  strong El Niño with rainfall at 102% of Long-period aver (LPA). According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reports India recorded highest rainfall since 1994.

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Why was monsoon so intense in India?

main reason for bountiful rainfall India has received this year because of what wear bureaus like Skymet and IMD have stated - El Niño effect. El Niño as explained by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric ministration is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Skymet h initially predicted in April that a 'weak' El Niño would persist, resulting monsoon to be below rmal at 93% LPA. But as months progressed,  amidst an ongoing El Niño, monsoon gained speed and reaching its peak in July-August period and steily rising at end of September. While re were acute droughts Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Presh, Telangana, and Tamil Nu in summer- especially in May 2019, a strong El-Ni saw a stey rise in monsoon in consecutive months.

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How does this excessive rainfall help India?

Skymet h assessed that September to be best month of this monsoon at 102% LPA, but in reality, it has been 153% which is highest since 1917. According to experts, this monsoon's biggest vant was its even distribution throughout nation, especially in Central India. According to Skymet reports, monsoon has been plentiful in drought-struck states like  Gujarat, Maharashtra and Mhya Presh in particular. Recent dam levels released by Centre also indicate that 113 major reservoirs are at nearly 87% of ir live stor capacities, which indicates a good start for crop year.

According to experts, excessive rain in September will help in accumulation of residual moisture in soil prior to Rabi crop season which begins in October. This monsoon also reportedly helps in replenishing water table and groundwater levels. Experts claim that this may help India see through next summer till next monsoon. While ne of experts captured that India would be receiving highest rainfall since 1994, y do feel that it is a good start to year.

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How heavy was 2019 monsoon?

According to Skymet, initially in June India faced a deficiency of 33% in June and it seemed that it was impossible to recover from such a deficiency. But in following months in July, August and September monsoon with season-ending with a surplus 10%, according to Skymet. Historically, over this century, Skymet claims that here have been five droughts (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2015) and five below-rmal years (2000, 2001, 2012, 2017 and 2018). But in comparison to last five years alone, rainfall has improved with 2019 being only surplus rainfall year. This is also first year where Modi government has seen good rainfall.

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