2024 Lok Sabha elections: Here's why 5 South Indian states do not matter

2024 Lok Sabha polls and South Indian politics - If this interesting subject is chosen for an in-depth analysis, two facts emerge. That 2024 results in these five states in South India are not to be a factor for formation of the Union Government. Second, the verdict in these five states will be assorted and split. 

Several new faces have emerged since 2019 in these five states. Spiritual politics and cine tinsel world play an important role in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Pawan Kalyan and Joseph Vijay are big names in Andhra and in Tamil Nadu. Politics in Southern states are not confusing. But it is crystal clear. The 2024 verdict will be a split verdict in each of the five states. No clear sweep of Congress or BJP is expected. State parties say eight major regional satraps  dominate the south politics.

If this is to be the subject matter, then there is a peculiarity, especially for Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Out of the five states in the South, the four are totally detached from each other. Though Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are both Telugu-speaking states, Telangana is too aggressive. Puducherry, which is a Union Territory, and Kerala are two extremes.  

Let us first take up Tamil Nadu. 2024 Lok Sabha in this state is likely to spring a major surprise. The Dravidian movement is fast fading away. And that could be visible in 2024 results from Tamil Nadu. For the first time in Tamil Nadu politics, three new faces will determine the winner of 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly polls and the new three faces other than the DMK versus AIADMK - MK Stalin or Edappadi Palanisamy.

K Annamalai, BJP leader, Seeman Leader Naam Tamizhar Katchi and the third, a star in the cine world, Joseph Vijay are also in the race. These three new faces will woo first-time and second-time voters. These three are bound to snatch away 25-30 per cent voters from the Dravidian parties. If not in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, they will certainly be key factors in 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly.

In Tamil Nadu politics, the vacuum of Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha, both tall personalities, are felt. Who will fill this slot? Will it be Narendra Modi and BJP with a nationalist outlook? Or Mallikarjun Kharge backed by Rahul Gandhi? But certainly after AIADMK walked out of NDA in Tamil Nadu, there is an olive branch being dangled by AIADMK towards Congress. Such crucial decisions of change of parties in the alliances are not possible. But one has to wait for the results of the five states' results to be out in the first week of December. But the time period from December to February 2024 is just three months - that alliances cannot be manipulated or altered with.

What will Andhra Pradesh throw out? This state is too interesting. Jagan Reddy still holds the key. But his political decision to arrest archrival Chandrababu Naidu and the timing were so perfect that Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP emerged as a powerful party. Short of apologising to PM Narendra Modi, the Telugu Desam leader Naidu almost surrendered to BJP and to Modi.

The future of Andhra Pradesh politics is divided into two personalities. One is Narendra Modi and the other is Chandrababu Naidu. Of course Jagan Reddy is in the centre stage. Congress is not a force at all, though it bifurcated the state a decade ago. Congress does have a hold in Telangana, but that space the BJP has been trying to redeem. Frequent visits of BJP top leaders to Telangana was made to shatter the strongman K Chandrasekhar Rao of Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti. 

Now let us turn to Kerala. CPM is a dominant force there. How would Chief Minister Vijayan handle Congress, which is the archrival. CPM and Left front want to decimate Congress in Kerala. Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Wayanad in Kerala. 100-year-old CPM stalwart VS Achuthanandan stated that Rahul Gandhi is a "Amul baby" and CPM will defeat Rahul Gandhi in 2024. Insiders do share that staunch Congress leaders are defecting towards CPM. Whether there will be a space for BJP or Narendra Modi in Kerala in 2024 is doubtful. 

Finally Karnataka is a crucial state for Congress. Will Chief Minister Siddharamaiah hold the key to 2024 Lok Sabha results from Karnataka? The answer is an emphatic no. There are bitter enemies for Chief Minister Siddharamaiah. Four factions in state Congress are keen to topple Siddharamaiah before 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The authority of Kharge and the three Gandhis are under political test in Karnataka. JDS has tactfully aligned with BJP for 2024 Lok Sabha polls. But there are efforts by JDS to topple Congress, whichever side you may look at, 28 seats of Lok Sabha from the state of Karnataka is a major cake for any formation at New Delhi. BJP is bound to gain more in Lok Sabha due to voters' dejection with Congress.

In short, to sum it up, either Rahul Gandhi or for that matter Narendra Modi will influence the fragmented politics of Southern India. Yes of course in the next decade for four major states in south Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh - the only one national party that can claim to have a foothold is certainly the Bharatiya Janata Party. First-time voters who were born and lived in the Narendra Modi era from 2002 have seen the digital revolution. 2024 is to be decided by the digital children vote bank, especially from the women folk.