2024 Verdict – Restoration of Balance or Reiteration of Continuity?

New Delhi: 2024 verdict is famously being seen as a please all verdict, where all the parties are winners. BJP can claim, rightfully, a historic verdict with a third consecutive term for the party and Modi ji, even if with lesser margin. Congress can claim moral victory for reaching a figure that is highest for it in last three elections. Opposition alliance can take a sigh of relief that people did not see the contradiction of their alliance where they were fighting against each other bitterly but claimed that they were together.

However, opposition is wary of giving credit to BJP for displacing a reigning highly popular CM in Odisha, returning to power in Arunachal Pradesh for second term, becoming main opposition in Telangana within a few months of Congress and displacing BRS. Congress was once a ruling party in Odisha, now almost invisible.

Inability of opposition and analysts to analyse big growth of BJP vote share in entire south and east and entry in Kerala makes their analysis lopsided. It is worth noting that Congress voting percentage has risen only by 2 odd percentage on the back of total backing of 18% minority vote bank, while BJP has maintained its share despite loosing nearly 9% votes of SCST on the back of fake news and deep fakes.

Setback to BJP in UP and Rajasthan is mainly on the back of fake news spread very well by Congress and SP about destroying constitution and scrapping reservations and 95-99% consolidated voting by Muslims. Unity of minorities vs successful splintering of Hindu vote after 10 years is the crux. I will not get into organisational failure of much vaunted electoral machinery of BJP here, nor the dangers of AI for deep fakery for Indian democracy.

There is a sense of glee in the left oriented academia, intelligentsia for surviving the scare of their near end. Though they have survived and thrived in their ivory towers built over 70 years, they know that they are no more mainstream, but relic of colonial slavery to western world view nurtured by Congress ecosystem. For me, BJP’s failure to create the alternative ecosystem rooted in Bharatiya knowledge and traditions of mutually respectful public and intellectual discourse that our society looks forward; breaking free of western shibboleths and exclusivist thought process, is more serious than the supposed strengthening of democracy and restoration of democracy.

The self congratulatory analysis of return of balanced polity is flawed on many counts. Nothing had stopped Left secular parties to forge unity earlier. There no evidence of BJP or strong leader Modi blocking them from coming up with alternative vision. There is no rationale in believing that huge majorities of Nehru, Indira Nehru Gandhi and Rajiv Nehru Gandhi were benign but Modi ji was dictatorial with his majority. Number of constitutional amendments, beginning with the first one restraining Freedom of Speech, and number of state government dismissals by Congress vis a vis zero such dismissals puncture this theory.

I foresee the cultural agenda of BJP taking a back seat. Issues like UCC, NEP, new text books, freeing history from the clutches of Marxist historians, freeing of temples may take a backseat, though no partner has shown its dislike for many of these topics. I see no reason for economic agenda and efficient governance losing steam because of lesser BJP numbers and dependence on other partners. This can happen only because opposition may believe that blocking every reform will pay dividends.

People have not voted against Modi’s style of working, that’s drawing room gossip of well heeled homes. It seems people have not liked BJP’s dilution of its brand equity as an ideology based party that stands firm on national issues and Hindutva, but welcomes unnecessary defections when it had everything going for it. Defeat of 69 candidates out of 110 is a strong highlighter. Remember BJP has lost, in all, 63 seats in these elections!

Analysts sympathetic to allegedly secular parties need to reflect, what stopped opposition from forcing balanced discussions and debates with the numbers they had. Blocking bills and walking out was not the way. Highly divisive campaign on caste, communal polarisation and sense of victory despite failure to reach majority make; and subsequent confrontationist approach undermines confidence of sober observers. Juvenile ridiculing of the most popular and an achiever PM doesn’t give me the confidence that there will be balance in political approach. Then how can we expect balance in “reigning in” a strong PM? Does balance mean stopping every bill, not appreciating any good work, specially for poor? It sounds conceited elitism. It does not require big numbers to have grace and political sagacity; and show a united face to the world. Did public intellectuals ever advise their protégés to behave more responsibly?

I believe that graceful positive politics would have given opposition better response, and Bharat a better polity as compared to the fractious atmosphere we see today. There is still time. I hope opposition sees this improvement in their strength as an opportunity to do better, positive politics. Bharat is at the cusp of a historic take off to regain a pre-eminent position in global order. Remember, BJP needs much less work for getting over the current setback as compared to opposition. It has peaked with 100% minority support and a chunk of misled SCST population support. From where will it get another 10% to defeat BJP and NDA with its patently anti-Hindu agenda? They need to redraw their strategy beyond delivering sermons to BJP.