Corona And the End Of Globalism

WHEN Donald Trump gave his 'end of globalism' speech at United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September last year, first reports of Corona virus were still two months away. In a stacatto and forboding tone, Trump told world future did t belong to globalists. "Wise leers always put good of ir own people and ir own country first," he h said, ding that America h most powerful army in world that could defend its wealth and spirit. Trump seems to have failed by his own standards. Today, number of those de of Corona in United States of America (USA) is more than any or nation in world making it hardest hit global hotspot of pandemic.

Ironically, context of Trump's attack on globalism was China - for having deceived United States into losing millions of jobs and 15 trillion dollars in tre over last quarter-century of globalisation. world has since come to a grinding halt in its fight against China-born Corona pandemic. Much of travel - both domestic and international - stands suspended, factories are shut, and supply chains are hit. All ecomic activity is on a drip, stock and flow numbers are being compared to post-WW-II Great Depression, and a recession bigger than 2008-09 financial crisis looks imminent. Naturally so.

Corona has impacted every aspect of life - both public and private - in ways that would subject of study and analysis for some time to come. Most of se changes would be transient, like missing maids from Indian homes. Ors could be long-lasting, like concept of 'work from home' given benefits it brings to both employees - saved commute time and flexibility - and employers - reduced establishment costs. And n re would be some that could be called evolutionary from civilizational point of view.

Like what?

Is too much of democracy an impediment in times of crisis? A close look at nations worst hit by Coronavirus - Italy, USA - and those that remained relatively unscad - Singapore, Russia, even China - provides a contrast worth some crystal ball gazing. Are societies that are less democratic (to extent that y can be easily disciplined) better at crisis manment? Would societies get tempted into choosing lesser democracy for better governance in future? Some study would definitely go into this thought post-Corona.

Second, is connected world as it has evolved over last five deces going to remain same for next five? Would visa and or restrictions that have been put in place on global movement le to a new regime guiding flow of goods and services across borders? Would it be still easy for China to remain shop floor of world, given price Lombardy has paid for its embrace of middle kingdom? Just as post-WW-II world evolved concept of visas, would Corona en a new way of travel, if t completely restrict it? Corona could turn Trump's ecomic 'End of Globalism' into a larger pandemic.

Third, would capitalism survive way we have kwn it in recent times? How do free market Ayatollahs see signing of Korean-war era Defence Production Act by which Trump asked General Motors and Ford to produce ventilators inste of cars? To help a family member in need of medical attention past week, I dialed a few private practitioners only to realize most of m chose to self isolate to save mselves from disease, even as doctors in public sector were literally dying in line of duty. Is invisible hand of State in fact most visible institution saving world?

Fourth, does a recession also need to spell civilizational rigor mortis? Writing on ecomy a few months back, I h ticed how six percent growth was being called anaemic by experts. same experts might be calling us alrey de! But are we? WhatsApp memes of Eiffel Tower becoming visible from India Gate twithstanding, would world have me choice between ecomy and climate on its own? Estimates put climate costs due to natural calamities on world at between 3-5 per cent of global GDP annually alrey. cleaning up of Ganga due to reduced Anthropomorphic footprint might have saved more than entire expenditure on all Ganga Action Plans since Rajiv Gandhi! Isn't that a compensation worth accounting for in GDP calculations?

That brings me to my final point. In same piece on ecomy, in context of global slowdown I h pondered over wher capitalism could be imbued with spirit of Gandhi's idea of trusteeship - what in recent times been called 'stakeholder capitalism' in America, though with limited practice. industry is itching to get back to full-scale operations. Bajaj group's Rajiv Bajaj wrote an op-ed a few days back berating government for thinking of citizens as fools to t take care of mselves. He forgot if contagion was about smarts, America would t have been worst sufferer.

Like most Black Swan events, Corona pandemic is going to provide civilizational choices - both physical and metaphysical. Till we make those choices, here's a thought: Today is Easter Sunday which brings to an end period of Lent during which much of Christiandom undergoes fasting as a way of life. Hindus fasted through nine days of Navratra past month, and April end would see Muslim brorhood observing Ramzan. Wise men across cultures and religions have found fasting integral to rejuvenation and good health. Corona restrictions - both local and global - perhaps could be that forced fasting that might just end of rejuvenating us. Enjoy lockdown till it lasts.