Opinion: The Geopolitical Ripples from the Russia-Ukraine war

Russia-Ukraine conflict has t only been influencing current world order but has also been immensely affecting global geopolitics. This is so because it has created ripples in geopolitics and has influenced reorganisation of political factions and ir adjustments. This conflict is w more limited to Russia and Ukraine as it has encircled entire globe so much so that a war crisis situation has emerged, especially after  pandemic.

What is revealing is that it has t only enhanced Europe’s ecomic problems but also forced it into US' decisions. As a result, Asian states have taken advant to become a pointer to new emerging power equations. Yet, most of m are hedging ir bets and are unwilling to take sides. Many of m have withstood US pressure and are importing cheaper Russian oil and carrying out trading in local currencies. But both Japan and South Korea, which perceive mselves as part of a global alliance of democratic forces and have close security ties with US, have condemned Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(A Ukrainian solider walks through rubble of a building heavily damd by Russian bombardments in Kharkiv, Ukraine; Im: AP)

Japan has territorial disputes with both China and Russia but has flourishing trade with both of m. At regional level in Asia, Russia-Ukraine conflict has created a geopolitically fragmented West Asia, where Iraq is moving away from Iran, Qatar from Saudi Arabia, and UAE is pursuing a more independent foreign policy. Turkey has emerged as a big factor as it has military muscle to back its allies, and controls traffic from Black Sea, which allows it to play a major role in revival of food exports from Ukraine. Though Iran is t directly affected by conflict, it appears to have emerged as a major game changer in future. In South Asia, Pakistan is on verge of collapse as its ecomy has been adversely impacted by conflict in addition to or major issues like soaring oil prices and short of wheat.

Similarly, Bangladesh has also been deeply impacted by conflict in terms of exports and imports as Russia is an important market for its readymade garments besides being a major source of wheat and millet supplies. Decreasing exports and rising import bills, coupled with a disruption of supply lines due to war and sanctions, have severely impacted global ecomy. It is obvious that US is struggling to blend in order to rearrange and restructure its approach towards its partners. In fact, one can witness that Russia-Ukraine conflict is providing a chance for US and or nations to restore ir relationship. A table change is visible in attitude of developing nations who have w demonstrated ir own approach and integrity by t following US but concentrating on ir own national interests.

(US President Joe Biden (left) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (right); Im: AP)

US envisions cooperation with India as crucial to helping ease Washington’s concerns over destabilising activities of China in Indo-Pacific. US also sees Russia as a strategic threat. India, however, has a historic and enduring relationship with Russia focussing on strong ecomic, diplomatic and military ties. Russia is a significant supplier of arms to India accounting for about US$13 billion in last five years. India also imported a record high of Russian crude oil of about 1.6 million barrels per day in February 2023. A complicating factor for India’s strategy, however, is continuing alignment of Russia and China because of Kremlin’s isolation from West over its war on Ukraine. India is promoting itself as a leader in Global South and remains an enthusiastic member of BRICS which also includes China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil.

(Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, PM Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (left to right) during 2019 BRICS meeting; Im: PTI)

re is a remarkable change in international affairs as several countries have shown a range of reactions toward US and Russia with regard to Russia-Ukraine conflict. India and Iran have taken a relatively neutral position on Russia-Ukraine conflict and have t bored with US sanctions against Russia. y have taken a measured and balanced approach in this situation and made choices based on ir own national interests. In such a scenario, US is trying its best to accommodate itself with opportunities as well as challenges in such regions as South Asia or West Asia. This is so because rising energy prices have had both positive and negative effects on energy-producing countries.

On positive side, rising prices have led to increased revenue and higher international status for energy-rich countries. re is a development transformation among regional partners. On negative contation, risk of food crisis has reached beyond control giving way to state of constant fluctuations in relationship between nations. Many n-traditional security challenges are beyond repair as Russia-Ukraine conflict is continuing so are challenges. It w appears that three superpowers, China, Russia, and US, will continue to occupy on vertex of triangle where or developing countries and energy-rich countries will have to play tactfully for ir own interests without any outside interference. India’s policies towards Russia can best be characterised as an example of its multi-alignment strategy. India enjoys a unique position and has excellent diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel and Arab countries. US, on or hand, would like to have full support from India in order to balance Russia-China ties in current situation. As China has been trying to strengn its political influence in West Asia region, it remains interested in strengning its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, two largest and richest countries in Gulf.

(Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister with Ali Shamkhani (right) , secretary of Iran’s security council, and Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban (left) Saudi Arabia’s minister of state; Im: CGTN)

On or hand, Russia is humming along in West Asia, pitching arms sales, building nuclear plants, and convening summits. w with recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to US as a state guest and warm welcome offered by Biden administration is obvious to picture which shows anxiousness of US to balance Russia-China closeness. Yet, what India has been doing can be seen through prism of its making serious efforts to reduce gap between developed and developing nations.

(PM Narendra Modi with US President Joe Biden at White House during his state visit; Im: AP)

author, Dr. Vaishali Krishna, is an Assistant Professor of Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

(Disclaimer: views and opinions expressed within this article are personal opinions of author. facts, analysis, assumptions, and perspectives appearing in article do t reflect views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.)