Trump Pulled Back As America Stood in Splendid Isolation on Iran

AS history would have it, but for cultivated friendship with Shah of Iran, United States of America (USA) might have only been a cop in neighbourhood protecting Israel in larger Shia-Sunni slash Persian-Arab conflict of Middle East. Iranian revolution survived Shah long eugh to deliver a permanent enemy for USA in region.

This is t just how I see it. Last 24-hrs have shown that perhaps most important reason why Donald Trump pulled back from brink was that almost all his friends in region saw it as America’s war. t irs to get into. Effectively, American President had one speaking same langu as him. Circa 2001, one televised address by George W Bush with mess “eir you are with us or against us” was eugh to rally world behind United States of America (USA). t anymore.

Politico, a Washington based digital publication, quoted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu telling his aides that “this (killing of General Soleimani) was an American event. t an Israeli event,” even as he publicly congratulated Trump. I am yet to see any follow up statement from Israel showing intent to back support militarily. Unless of course Israel gets directly hit. In which case it might actually be World War-III. But that’s for later.

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Even more surprising, given equations, was way Arab friends of America responded. Saudi Arabia underscored importance of self-restraint and called for world community to take necessary measures to maintain stability and calm. Reading belligerence in statement would be like searching for grass in desert sands of Arabia. I was in studio when sound bite of a UAE minister broke. “We are closely following developments in region and would want current tensions to deescalate. We would also stress importance of dialogue and political solutions in current situation.” Are you kidding me? UAE did t even name Iran after 22 missiles targeted American interests in Iraq!

As if this was t bad eugh, French took almost 24-hrs to come out with a first response, again asking for restraint from both sides. While condemning missile strikes, Germans were candid eugh to ask both sides to move on. China even asked m to start a dialogue. elephant in room during all this was man with permanent swag – Russian President. Vladimir Putin flew down to Damascus just a day after American action, choosing to be seen publicly with Syrian regime amid tension. And as if this was t eugh, he followed it up by asking for restraint on grounds that region was a possible nuclear flashpoint. Really? If Iranians are yet far from a credible nuke, who would start it? Conventional superiority of America and its allies in region is eugh to make sure y don’t need to be first to press button. Clearly, Putin was poking a finger in eye.

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However, what might have come as an eye-opener to Trump was resolution passed by Iraqi parliament asking for American forces to leave. If implemented, it could seriously jeopardise long term American interests in region, beginning with immediate consequences for America’s capacity to restrain Syrian regime. Add to it domestic front with Speaker Nancy Pelosi threatening a ‘War Powers Resolution’ that would have greatly compromised his capacity to mobilize a big war effort, Trump clearly stood isolated. In his address to nation Thursday, he alluded to Obama deal as reason why Iran could muster such missile capability as to hit American targets, bragged that he did t need oil as America was already world’s biggest producer, and chastised Iraqi clients for being ungrateful after all billions of dollars spent on facilities to protect m from Iran. Howsoever grudgingly, he had option but to pull back.

To be fair to Americans, re were eugh provocations in last six months from Iranians from downing of ir drone, to hitting Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia, to killing of contractor on December 27, and last trigger - storming of Embassy in Baghdad, with a throwback to scary memories of 1979. Wher American response in killing of Soleimani was proportionate would be stuff of global diplomacy over next few months. What is important is that a welcome de-escalation has happened, and world leaders need to build on it.

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