Published 21:48 IST, April 28th 2020
Would COVID & upcoming US Elections compel Trump to take a combative stand against China?
If COVID is perceived by US voters as ‘Pearl Harbour Moment’ of the century, given its magnitude, writing on the wall is too crystal-clear for Trump to ignore
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As this article’s writing was in progress, death toll in US related to COVID-19 pandemic had almost breached 50,000 mark. If this trend continues, it would t be surprising if in next few weeks total number of COVID- 19 related deaths in US would touch 1 lakh figure mark and sadly so.
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Forthcoming Litmus Test
Later this year, on vember 3, 2020, American people would take part in country’s 59th quadrennial presidential election to eir re-elect incumbent president, Donald Trump, for a second term or reject him in same. As things stood just before global outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, forthcoming US presidential election was about Donald Trump only. And it still is. only difference being that by time moment for polling would come, US electorate would also take into consideration Trump Administration’s handling of pandemic and wher it has been able to penalize those who are alleged to have ‘abetted outbreak’.
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COVID-19 Death Toll in US and its Impact on US Elections
Imagine a US President going for election with burden of death of countless American citizens occurring in fag-end of his tenure and where he had to ackwledge that ‘re will be a lot of death’. Can incumbent president, in such a scenario, cruise through looming election without any ‘payback’ or would, in usual American style, electorate expect ir President to act as a ‘Super Hero’ and ‘avenge’ those deaths? With US President almost hinting at possible consequence against China, in case y were ‘kwingly responsible’ for outbreak and its global spread, moot question is this: Can Donald Trump expect to have a smooth ride in forthcoming election without him declaring ‘War’ against China to pacify enrd US populace? Would Trump’s Democrat challengers treat COVID-19 pandemic as a bygone mishap or capitalise on it to corner incumbent President in final face-off?
A Missouri Lawsuit that Indicates Rising American Anger towards China
Incidentally, a lawsuit filed in US District Court in Eastern District of Missouri by Missouri’s Attorney General Eric Schmitt, gives a critical clue of shape of things to come. lawsuit has been filed against Chinese Government and Chinese Communist Party accusing m of suppression of critical information related COVID-19, misleading world on contagious nature of virus, a crackdown on whistle-blowers, hoarding of Personal Protection Equipment, destruction of critical research and exposing millions to virus.
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" Chinese government lied to world about danger and contagious nature of COVID-19, silenced whistleblowers, and did little to stop spread of disease. y must be held accountable for ir actions.” stated Erich Schmitt. He also stated, ‘COVID-19 has done irreparable dam to countries across globe, causing sickness, death, ecomic disruption, and human suffering.’
Even though lawsuit per se, may t have any impact on China right w, but is definitely a harbinger of shape of things to come. Reeling under ecomic crisis and rising death toll, it is for sure that many or states in US would also file similar lawsuits, keeping in mind popular sentiments, which might put tremendous pressure on Trump Administration to act against China in some way or or.
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Democrat Strategy to Corner Trump
However, it is t just issue of lawsuits. It is also about those who are politically opposed to Trump. Democrat minee and Trump’s most potent challenger for vember elections, Joe Biden, has already started targeting Trump’s Achilles’s Heel. ‘ uncomfortable truth is that this president left America exposed and vulnerable to this pandemic’, stated Biden in one of this released videos perceived by many as a precursor of his possible campaign strategy. Biden furr stated in video, ‘He (Trump) igred warnings of health experts and intelligence ncies, and put his trust in China's leaders instead." Certainly this is going to hurt Trump’s invincibility im and this t something that he can shrug off casually.
If one analyses what Tony Blinken, former Deputy Secretary of State and foreign policy advisor to Joe Biden stated, it gives a clear indication of how Democrats would try to pitch Biden as a ‘messiah’ who would rescue US from ‘mess’ that US is w in. Blinken stated, ‘President Trump went soft on China when it mattered most. Joe Biden will insist that China live up to its responsibilities.’ In such a scenario of a sustained attack on Trump, can Trump get a smooth ride without a vitriolic display of anger and vengeance towards ‘alleged perpetrator’ of COVID-19 outbreak, namely China? Would electorate accept his inaction or term it as his weakness? Will US domestic politics play its part in shaping up global geopolitics in next six months?
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Forthcoming Bankruptcy in Shale Oil Industry
In fact, Covid-19 crisis has hit US in more than one way. Witness this: futures contract for Western Texas Crude (WTI) crashed to minus $37.63 a barrel on 22nd April, 2020. If this trend continues, it is going to be a nightmarish situation for hundreds of American shale oil companies and very future prospect of shale oil production in US. American shale oil exploration and production companies have already been witnessing tough time for quite some time even before pandemic started its carn on people and industry.
intense competition from OPEC and Russia and ir collective reluctance to cut ir respective crude production for long, even during global slowdown, hammered viability of American shale oil companies in a bloodied manner. global oil glut meant that most had to over lever to remain floating. But COVID 19 crisis has been like a death knell. As per a research by Rystad Energy, if price of oil continues to hover around $20 a barrel bracket, almost 533 US based shale oil exploration and production companies may end up filing for bankruptcy by end of 2021, while if price crashes furr and hover around $10 a barrel mark, an estimated 1100 oil companies may end up filing for bankruptcy in US. This, one has to remember, indicates impact on just shale oil industry. impact of COVID-19 pandemic across or sectors, including aviation and manufacturing, would be profound too.
Resultant COVID-19 Job Losses
By time date for polling would come, picture would get gloomier and resultant job losses coupled with rising cases of bankruptcies would take a toll on perception of electorate. Already, as per reports, around 26 million Americans have been rendered unemployed since COVID-19 outbreak and number is only going to go up in run up to US elections later this year.
Thus, one would perhaps be any more interested in remembering what kind of trade deals President Trump facilitated or what he did in past in reviving jobs in US because all that electorate would remember is carn of last six months on jobs and health. In such a scenario what would US electorate expect from ir Government?
Mike Pompeo’s Statement on China: A Hint of Future?
If one takes a clue from recent statement made by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, during a television show where he stated that China will ‘pay a price for what y did’, n perhaps it clearly shows how things might shape up in US amidst rising discontent and opposition pressure, and what US Administration may be compelled to do to deflect m.
Chinese Culpability and Unanswered Questions
Chinese culpability, in some or or way, is beyond doubt. ir lackadaisical approach toward hazardous wet markets which are torious for trading in exotic animals and past outbreak of pandemics, ir total lack of transparency in dealing with sensitive issues, ir alleged attempts to cover-up outbreak and clamping down on whistle-blowers, ir history of lab leaks, ir selling of faulty testing kits, ir suspicious actions allegedly in connivance with WHO, especially related to official statements by WHO with reference of Chinese testimony, which made world falsely believe that human-to-human transmissions were t happening in case of COVID-19, in addition to a whole host of or unanswered questions definitely makes it difficult to give China a clean chit. Add to this shocking instances of Chinese financial behemoths taking advant of global financial crisis and attempting to takeover distressed companies in crisis laden countries where valuations of companies have slumped reby making m easy prey in stock markets.
Would Only Demonstrable Anti-China Action Satisfy American Electorate?
President Trump may be anything but a warmonger. During last four years, USA has been anything but belligerent. It has been more inward-looking and refused to continue job of global policing. However if ‘war is a continuation of politics by or means’ n Trump may eir have to vow for demonstrable retribution or himself take blame for mess, US is right w in, and bow out of presidential race. Since second possibility can be ruled out, one can expect some form of hostility with China, be it diplomatic, cold or hot.
Options Before Trump: A Resolution against China in UN to begin with?
To begin with, world might witness US taking a strong stand against China in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and possibility of any strong resolution being passed or attempted to pass, cant be ruled out, Chinese veto twithstanding. global mood having turned significantly against China, one should t be surprised if such resolutions, including seeking financial compensation from China, find unprecedented and overwhelming support across countries and continents. grievance of many against China is t just about its alleged cover-ups on COVID-19 related crisis, but is also about its torious cheque-book diplomacy that has pushed several small nations on brink of bankruptcy.
Incentivise US Companies to Shift Manufacturing out of China
Furr, one may also witness Trump proposing a Japan-type stimulus for all such American companies having ir manufacturing base in China, to shift it elsewhere or bring m back to US. With more than 26 million Americans having already lost jobs since COVID-19 related shutdowns, this may in some way boost Trump’s prospects in eyes of American voters even though how much American companies would pay heed to this idea is ar issue.
Can Financial Sanctions against China be Ruled Out? t Really..
Often, US Administration has used ecomic sanctions as a medium to financially penalise countries. Since 2017, CAATSA or Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act has been in vogue which has been imposed by US on Russia, Iran and rth Korea. If one is to go by Mike Pompeo’s statement on making China ‘pay price’, one cant rule out possibility of US imposing some kind of major ecomic sanctions on China. Wher it would be feasible or find acceptability is ar issue but in an election year, given kind of quagmire that Trump Administration may find itself in, it may take this route in his attempt to pacify nerves of electorates.
Possibility of a Major Flare-up in Taiwan Strait or South China Sea
Least of all, though t completely improbable, is possibility of some kind of a major skirmish or face-off. Situation in South China Sea or Taiwan Strait are t really quiet in nature. Beneath superficial surface of harmony, lies an uneasy anticipation for worst. Chinese military exercises and maeuvrings near Taiwanese air and territorial waters have t gone down well with Taiwanese Armed Forces. One wonders if China has taken advant of global COVID-19 crisis to flex its military muscles. re were also reciprocal military exercises by Taiwan simulating interception of Chinese warplanes from mainland China. Also, for some time w, US Navy destroyers have been periodically making transits across Taiwan Strait to bolster its show of solidarity with Taiwan and for sending a stern warning to China to avoid any mischief. situation is t going to get better any sooner. In such a scenario, a conflict type situation, if t a real conflict, may give maximum mile to President Trump and quash at least some of criticisms of Joe Biden led Democrat campaign aimed at Trump and accusing him of being ‘soft on China’.
Can US Still Pack a Military Punch?
While it has been nearly two-and-a-half decade since ‘Third Taiwan Strait Crisis’ of 1995-96 and even though Chinese military has undergone massive modernisation since n, still US has eugh military edge to pack a punch if it wants to. Also, it has to be ted that neir Chinese Armed Forces r its arsenal has been tested in real battles since 1979 clash against Vietnam.
While a full-fledged or even a local face-off may still be an unthinkable proposition, one must t forget that se are t rmal times. COVID-19 carn both on human lives and ecomy may invariably provoke mask of tranquillity to peel off. It is also highly unlikely that too many countries, beyond usual suspects, would object if US really plans up something big.
‘Hobson’s choice’ Situation for President Trump
For Trump, refore, Hobson’s choice is loud and clear. Eir he has to seek vengeance on China in some or or way, or risk facing adverse outcomes in forthcoming elections if he maintains status-quo and appear, in eyes of electorate and opposition, to be conciliatory or accommodating towards Chinese leadership. Trump may t be a war monger but perhaps only declaration of that three lettered word, or something similar in form of ‘payback’, can brighten his prospects. If COVID-19 Pandemic is perceived by US Electorate as ‘Pearl Harbour Moment’ of this century, n given its magnitude of carn, writing on wall is too crystal-clear for US President to igre.
(Author of this article, Pathikrit Payne is a New Delhi based Geopolitical Analyst. views and opinions expressed are personal opinions of author. facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing do t reflect views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.)
18:29 IST, April 28th 2020